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Pitfalls in comparing Paris pledges

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  • Sam S. Rowan

    (University of Oxford)

Abstract

The Paris pledges are unique documents in climate governance that outline what each country intends to do to combat climate change. Often, these documents contain headline greenhouse gas percentage reduction targets that appear to summarize countries’ contributions to mitigation. This is a boon for comparative climate policy research. However, I show in this paper that the Paris pledges require detailed interpretation to be comparable. I demonstrate the risks in comparing these targets by re-visiting a recent studying linking national public opinion to the stringency of countries’ mitigation goals. I develop new indicators that better account for the structure of the targets and show in replications that the original finding is inconsistent with the underlying data. I conclude by drawing lessons for studying the Paris pledges.

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  • Sam S. Rowan, 2019. "Pitfalls in comparing Paris pledges," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 455-467, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:155:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02494-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02494-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor,David G., 2011. "Global Warming Gridlock," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521865012.
    2. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer & Keigo Akimoto, 2017. "Comparing emissions mitigation efforts across countries," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 501-515, May.
    3. Yann Robiou du Pont & M. Louise Jeffery & Johannes Gütschow & Joeri Rogelj & Peter Christoff & Malte Meinshausen, 2017. "Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 38-43, January.
    4. Aaron Drummond & Lauren C. Hall & James D. Sauer & Matthew A. Palmer, 2018. "Is public awareness and perceived threat of climate change associated with governmental mitigation targets?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 159-171, July.
    5. Robert O. Keohane & Michael Oppenheimer, 2016. "Paris: Beyond the Climate Dead End through Pledge and Review?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 142-151.
    6. Tien Ming Lee & Ezra M. Markowitz & Peter D. Howe & Chia-Ying Ko & Anthony A. Leiserowitz, 2015. "Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 1014-1020, November.
    7. Kono, Daniel Y., 2006. "Optimal Obfuscation: Democracy and Trade Policy Transparency," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 100(3), pages 369-384, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Rūta Banelienė & Rolandas Strazdas, 2023. "Green Innovation for Competitiveness: Impact on GDP Growth in the European Union," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 17(1), March.

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