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Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates

Author

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  • Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla

    (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence Center)

  • Aissatou Faye

    (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence Center
    Federal University of Technology – Akure (FUTA)
    International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Earth System Physics Section)

  • Nana Ama Browne Klutse

    (Ghana Space Science and Technology Institute)

  • Kangbeni Dimobe

    (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence Center)

Abstract

Estimating climate change impacts on water resources in West Africa has been challenged by hydrological data scarcity and inconsistencies in the available climate projections. In this study, multi-model ensembles of the most recent global and regional climate models output are used to simulate the hydrologic impacts of climate change in five major river basins (i.e. Senegal, Gambia, Volta, Niger and Chad) that comprise most of West Africa. Under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, the results consistently project substantial decreases (10 to 40%) in potential water availability across the five major river basins. The largest changes are projected to occur in the Senegal basin, Gambia basin and the Sahelian part of the other river basins. The negative trends are steepest after 2050 and in the higher greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Therefore, in a business-as-usual world, reduced water availability combined with the region’s rapidly growing population will have West Africa facing an unprecedented water deficit during the second half of the twenty-first century. However, greenhouse gas mitigation can help reduce this deficit. In the Volta basin, although potential water availability declines considerably, precipitation exceeds potential evapotranspiration during the monsoon season in both forcing scenarios, suggesting opportunities for adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla & Aissatou Faye & Nana Ama Browne Klutse & Kangbeni Dimobe, 2018. "Projected increased risk of water deficit over major West African river basins under future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 247-258, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2308-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2308-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robin Chadwick & Peter Good & Gill Martin & David P. Rowell, 2016. "Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 177-181, February.
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    1. Eric Mensah Mortey & Kouakou Lazare Kouassi & Arona Diedhiou & Sandrine Anquetin & Mathieu Genoud & Benoit Hingray & Didier Guy Marcel Kouame, 2019. "Sustainable Hydroelectric Dam Management in the Context of Climate Change: Case of the Taabo Dam in Côte D’Ivoire, West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-32, September.
    2. Jason Alexandra, 2021. "Navigating the Anthropocene’s rivers of risk—climatic change and science-policy dilemmas in Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Oudah Yobom, 2020. "Climate change and variability: empirical evidence for countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 365-384, April.

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