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Multi-sectoral, high-resolution assessment of climate change consequences of coastal flooding

Author

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  • Alexandra Toimil

    (Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria)

  • Iñigo J. Losada

    (Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria)

  • Pedro Díaz-Simal

    (Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria)

  • Cristina Izaguirre

    (Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria)

  • Paula Camus

    (Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria)

Abstract

In the context of growing concern about the threat of flooding posed by climate change in coastal areas, the Spanish plan for coastal adaptation to climate change gave rise to stringent requirements on risk consequence estimates at the regional scale O (100 km). Within this framework, we propose a methodology that combines high space-time resolution climate information (reanalysis databases and projections), local data on exposure that accounts for the most relevant sectors, site-specific vulnerability functions, and flood risk consequence valuation, gridded at 5 m. This approach involves efficient multiple-forcing flood modeling, in which the connection between climate change and potential inundation is primarily established through the definition of a total water level index. This research tackles challenging issues, including the importance of incorporating the effects of existing coastal defenses and local wave effects in port areas, dealing with data at different spatial scales and sectors in an integrated way, and the impact of discounting. The results provide insights into the possible consequences of inaction for a range of future scenarios based on changes in climate and socio-economics over the most relevant sectors. With the goal of prioritizing adaptive action and the efficient assignment of funds, we propose a weight-based integration of the sectoral value-at-risk through the application of Bayesian techniques and expert judgment. The methodology described here was applied to a pilot case study on the coast of Asturias in northern Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Toimil & Iñigo J. Losada & Pedro Díaz-Simal & Cristina Izaguirre & Paula Camus, 2017. "Multi-sectoral, high-resolution assessment of climate change consequences of coastal flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 431-444, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:145:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2104-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2104-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sanne Muis & Martin Verlaan & Hessel C. Winsemius & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Philip J. Ward, 2016. "A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-12, September.
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    3. Philip J. Ward & Brenden Jongman & Peter Salamon & Alanna Simpson & Paul Bates & Tom De Groeve & Sanne Muis & Erin Coughlan de Perez & Roberto Rudari & Mark A. Trigg & Hessel C. Winsemius, 2015. "Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 712-715, August.
    4. Jim Hall & Paul Sayers & Richard Dawson, 2005. "National-scale Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk in England and Wales," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 36(1), pages 147-164, September.
    5. Matthew Heberger & Heather Cooley & Pablo Herrera & Peter Gleick & Eli Moore, 2011. "Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 229-249, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Melissa Bedinger & Lindsay Beevers & Lila Collet & Annie Visser, 2019. "Are We Doing ‘Systems’ Research? An Assessment of Methods for Climate Change Adaptation to Hydrohazards in a Complex World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, February.
    2. Menéndez, Pelayo & Losada, Iñigo J. & Beck, Michael W. & Torres-Ortega, Saul & Espejo, Antonio & Narayan, Siddharth & Díaz-Simal, Pedro & Lange, Glenn-Marie, 2018. "Valuing the protection services of mangroves at national scale: The Philippines," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(PA), pages 24-36.

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