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Will climate change increase or decrease suicide rates? The differing effects of geographical, seasonal, and irregular variation in temperature on suicide incidence

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  • Matt Williams
  • Stephen Hill
  • John Spicer

Abstract

The effect of environmental temperature on suicide risk is an important issue given the increase in global temperatures expected over the following century. Previous research has produced conflicting findings: Studies concerned with temporal variation in temperature and suicide have tended to find a positive relationship, while those concerned with geographical variation in temperature and suicide have tended to find a negative relationship. In this study, we aimed firstly to estimate the relationship between suicide incidence and three components of variation in temperature: Irregular, seasonal, and geographical. Secondly, we aimed to critically examine what this information can (and cannot) tell us about the likely effects of anthropogenic climate change on suicide rates. Suicide data from New Zealand for the period 1988 to 2007 were collated according to date of death and district and compared with temperature data from the same period. Using generalized linear mixed models, we found that irregular variation in temperature was positively related to suicide incidence, with about 1.8 % more suicides for every 1 °C increase in temperature. On the other hand, seasonal variation in temperature had virtually no linear relationship with suicide incidence, and when controlling for demographic differences, geographical variation in temperature was negatively related to suicide incidence. We conclude that differences in both the sign and the direction of the effects of different forms of variation in temperature mean that it is very difficult to predict how climate change will affect risk of suicide. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Matt Williams & Stephen Hill & John Spicer, 2015. "Will climate change increase or decrease suicide rates? The differing effects of geographical, seasonal, and irregular variation in temperature on suicide incidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 519-528, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:130:y:2015:i:4:p:519-528
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1371-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chew, Kenneth S. Y. & McCleary, Richard, 1995. "The spring peak in suicides: A cross-national analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 223-230, January.
    2. Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta & Bopp, Matthias & Ring, Mariann & Gutzwiller, Felix & Rossler, Wulf, 2010. "Seasonality in suicide - A review and search of new concepts for explaining the heterogeneous phenomena," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 657-666, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matt Williams & Stephen Hill & John Spicer, 2015. "The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 559-573, October.
    2. Jamie Mullins & Corey White, 2018. "Temperature, Climate Change, and Mental Health: Evidence from the Spectrum of Mental Health Outcomes," Working Papers 1801, California Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Nkiru Edith Obande-Ogbuinya & Lois Nnenna Omaka-Amari & Scholastica A. Orj & Stella Uzoamaka Ugwu & Regina Adaoma Onunze & Helen Nwokike Ugwunna & Jacinta E. Ugbelu & Nwajioha Patrck Nwite & Tyogbah J, 2023. "Hypothetical Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change on Mental Health of Undergraduates in Alex-Ekwueme Federal University, Ebonyi State of Nigeria," Global Journal of Health Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(3), pages 1-59, March.

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