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The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand

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  • Matt Williams
  • Stephen Hill
  • John Spicer

Abstract

A number of previous studies have reported a positive relationship between ambient temperature and the incidence of violent crimes such as assault. This has led some authors to suggest that anthropogenic climate change may result in an increase in violent crime rates. In this study, we report an investigation of the relationship between temperature and assault incidence in New Zealand. Both police data listing recorded assaults as well as data from the Ministry of Health listing hospitalisations due to assault were examined. Geographical, seasonal, and irregular daily variation in temperature were all positively related to the incidence of assault, although only the effect of irregular variation in temperature was robust to controls for plausible confounds. The estimated effect of irregular daily variation in temperature was approximately 1.5 % extra recorded assaults for each 1 °C increase in temperature. It remains difficult, however, to make accurate predictions about future assault rates in a warming world. For example, humans may react to sustained changes in climate in ways that differ markedly from their reaction to short-term variation in temperature. Climate change may also affect rates of violence via mechanisms other than those that currently drive the relationship between temperature and violence. Furthermore, assault rates may continue to change in response to factors unrelated to climate change, such as those responsible for the long-term historical decline in human violence. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Matt Williams & Stephen Hill & John Spicer, 2015. "The relationship between temperature and assault in New Zealand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 559-573, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:559-573
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1438-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Russell Bennetts & Rachel Seabrook, 2008. "Retail Sales of Alcohol and the Risk of Being a Victim of Assault," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(5), pages 1-3, May.
    2. Matt Williams & Stephen Hill & John Spicer, 2015. "Will climate change increase or decrease suicide rates? The differing effects of geographical, seasonal, and irregular variation in temperature on suicide incidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 519-528, June.
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