IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/chfecr/v3y2015i1d10.1186_s40589-015-0009-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How to tackle the slowdown of potential growth rate in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Fang Cai

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

Background The shrinkage of working age population at ages between 15 and 59 after 2010 will end the era of the high-speed economic growth in China. This paper is intended to explore the ways of tackling this slowdown. Methods By revealing annual growth rate of potential output to drop to 7.2 % in 2011–2015 and 6.1 % in 2016–2020, this paper is to explain the cause of growth rate deceleration and draw policy implications of such slowdown. Results First, the government should not seek a growth rate above potential rate if they do not intend to see distortions in the economy such as macroeconomic instability, overcapacity, deviation from comparative advantage, and protection of inefficient firms. Second, the potential growth rate can be strengthened through institutions building and reorientation of public policy in various areas in order to spur labor mobility and productivity improvement. Conclusions This paper suggests to deepen economic reform in order to sustain the necessarily high growth rate of the Chinese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Cai, 2015. "How to tackle the slowdown of potential growth rate in China?," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:chfecr:v:3:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1186_s40589-015-0009-4
    DOI: 10.1186/s40589-015-0009-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s40589-015-0009-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s40589-015-0009-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minami, Ryoshin, 1968. "The Turning Point in the Japanese Economy," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 19(3), pages 220-229, July.
    2. Ryoshin Minami, 1968. "The Turning Point in the Japanese Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 82(3), pages 380-402.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Géza Rippel, 2017. "China – Rebalancing and Sustainable Convergence," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(Sepcial I), pages 50-72.
    2. Shengqin Wu & Degang Yang & Fuqiang Xia & Xinhuan Zhang & Jinwei Huo & Tianyi Cai & Jing Sun, 2022. "The Effect of Labor Reallocation and Economic Growth in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Yang Du & Cuifen Yang, 2014. "Demographic Transition And Labour Market Changes: Implications For Economic Development In China," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 617-635, September.
    2. Sakib Bin Amin & Farhan Khan & Mashiyat Rafa Khan & Jaahin Azam Oyishi, 2023. "The dual economy paradox: the case of Bangladesh and India," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(9), pages 1-22, September.
    3. Tomoko HASHINO, 2021. "From Lyon to Kyoto: Modernization of a Traditional Silk-Weaving District in Japan, 1887–1929," Discussion Papers 2122, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    4. Ge, Suqin & Yang, Dennis Tao, 2011. "Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 611-625.
    5. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Minami, Ryoshin, 1970. "Further Considerations on the Turning Point in the Japanese Economy (I)," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 10(2), pages 18-60, February.
    7. Minami R. & Ono A., 1975. "Population change and economic growth; a long-term econometric model of the Japanese economy," ILO Working Papers 991598953402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Elena Bárcena-Martin & Elena Jacques Silber & Yuan Zhang, 2019. "On the measurement of population weighted relative indices of mobility and convergence, with an illustration based on Chinese data," Working Papers 505, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    9. Yuan Zhang & Ting Shao & Qi Dong, 2018. "Reassessing the Lewis Turning Point in China: Evidence from 70,000 Rural Households," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 26(1), pages 4-17, January.
    10. A. Ford Ramsey & Tadashi Sonoda & Minkyong Ko, 2023. "Intersectoral labor migration and agriculture in the United States and Japan," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 364-381, May.
    11. Tomoko Hashino & Keijiro Otsuka, 2013. "Hand looms, power looms, and changing production organizations: the case of the Kiryū weaving district in early twentieth-century Japan," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(3), pages 785-804, August.
    12. Nazrul Islam & Kazuhiko Yokota, 2008. "Lewis Growth Model and China's Industrialization," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 359-396, December.
    13. repec:ilo:ilowps:159895 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2014. "On the role of policy interventions in structural change and economic development: The case of postwar Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 67-83.
    15. Kwan, Fung & Wu, Yanrui & Zhuo, Shuaihe, 2018. "Surplus agricultural labour and China's Lewis turning point," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 244-257.
    16. Dong, Qi & Murakami, Tomoaki & Nakashima, Yasuhiro, 2018. "Modeling the Labor Transfers from the Agricultural Sector to the Non-agricultural Sector under Food Supply Constraint in China," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274161, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Hao Qi, 2019. "Semi-Proletarianization in a Dual Economy: The Case of China," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 553-561, December.
    18. Golley, Jane & Meng, Xin, 2011. "Has China run out of surplus labour?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 555-572.
    19. CAI, Fang & DU, Yang, 2011. "Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 601-610.
    20. Ramsey, A. Ford & Sonoda, Tadashi & Ko, Minkyong, 2021. "Aggregation and Threshold Models of Intersectoral Labor Migration: Evidence from the United States and Japan," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315110, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:chfecr:v:3:y:2015:i:1:d:10.1186_s40589-015-0009-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.