IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/apjors/v8y2024i1d10.1007_s41685-023-00319-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How to manage tourism development based on impacts of climate change in Turkiye?

Author

Listed:
  • Aysun Aygün Oğur

    (Pamukkale University)

  • Tüzin Baycan

    (Istanbul Technical University)

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the impacts of climatic shifts caused by climate change on tourism destinations and provide a strategic roadmap to manage tourism development and investments in Turkiye. To assess the climate change impacts on the tourism sector, we focus on spatial variations in climate change, model the changing suitability of climatic conditions on tourism activities in different regions of Turkiye and estimate future climate conditions by considering climate scenarios. The “Tourism Climate Index” (TCI) is adopted to compare the suitability of the climate for tourism activities during the base years (1963–2017) and the projected years (2040–2069). In applying current and estimated climatic data, the case study destinations are assembled into three groups based on magnitude and direction of change, namely, alarming, moderate, and advantageous destinations. To provide a strategic roadmap, a matrix is developed regarding the number of international tourists, the number of accommodation facilities, tourism type and TCI results. As a result, nine zones are defined to represent the risks and potentials of the destinations, their priority levels in future tourism development are determined, and recommendations for each zone are formulated. İstanbul and Antalya excel with their high demand, advanced infrastructure and potential for an extended tourism season, while Nevşehir, Ankara, and Konya stand out as alternative destinations. On the other hand, İzmir and Muğla stand out with their high risk and high demand. The significance of this study lies in adaptions of climatic shifts to a tourism development roadmap. The results are critical for formulation of strategic tourism development plans from the local to the national levels for sustaining viability of the tourism market.

Suggested Citation

  • Aysun Aygün Oğur & Tüzin Baycan, 2024. "How to manage tourism development based on impacts of climate change in Turkiye?," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:8:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s41685-023-00319-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-023-00319-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41685-023-00319-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41685-023-00319-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esraa A. El-Masry & Mahmoud Kh. El-Sayed & Mohamed A. Awad & Amr A. El-Sammak & Mohamed A. El Sabarouti, 2022. "Vulnerability of tourism to climate change on the Mediterranean coastal area of El Hammam–EL Alamein, Egypt," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1145-1165, January.
    2. Chiang-Ming Chen & Yu-Chen Lin & Eldon Y. Li & Chia-Chang Liu, 2017. "Weather uncertainty effect on tourism demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(2), pages 469-474, March.
    3. Ling-en Wang & Yuxi Zeng & Linsheng Zhong, 2017. "Impact of Climate Change on Tourism on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Research Based on a Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-14, August.
    4. D. D. Yu & L. Matthews & D. Scott & S. Li & Z. Y. Guo, 2022. "Climate suitability for tourism in China in an era of climate change: a multiscale analysis using holiday climate index," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(14), pages 2269-2284, July.
    5. Aysun Aygün Oğur & Tüzin Baycan, 2023. "Assessing climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2905-2935, March.
    6. Jarkko Saarinen & Kaarina Tervo, 2006. "Perceptions and adaptation strategies of the tourism industry to climate change: the case of Finnish nature-based tourism entrepreneurs," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 214-228.
    7. Robert Steiger & Daniel Scott & Bruno Abegg & Marc Pons & Carlo Aall, 2019. "A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 1343-1379, July.
    8. Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Campos-Soria, Juan A., 2010. "Climate in the region of origin and destination choice in outbound tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 744-753.
    9. SOFRONOV, Bogdan, 2018. "The Development Of The Travel And Tourism Industry In The World," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 18(4), pages 123-137.
    10. Daniel Scott & Stefan Gössling & C. Michael Hall, 2012. "International tourism and climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3), pages 213-232, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lei Zhang & Jing Gao, 2024. "Does climate policy uncertainty influence corporate cash holdings? Evidence from the U.S. tourism and hospitality sector," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(7), pages 1704-1728, November.
    2. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    3. Hailu, Atakelty & Gao, Lei, 2010. "Recreational trip timing and duration prediction: A research note," Working Papers 97474, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten, 2018. "Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Jianwei Qi & Yayan Lu & Fang Han & Xuankai Ma & Zhaoping Yang, 2022. "Spatial Distribution Characteristics of the Rural Tourism Villages in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Influencing Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Zamparini, L. & Domènech, A. & Miravet, D. & Gutiérrez, A., 2022. "Green mobility at home, green mobility at tourism destinations: A cross-country study of transport modal choices of educated young adults," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Francesco Angelini & Paolo Figini & Veronica Leoni, 2024. "High tide, low price? Flooding alerts and hotel prices in Venice," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 876-899, June.
    8. Trawöger, Lisa, 2014. "Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-351.
    9. Carolina Aldao & Tanja A. Mihalic, 2020. "New Frontiers in Travel Motivation and Social Media: The Case of Longyearbyen, the High Arctic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.
    10. John E. Gordon, 2023. "Climate Change and Geotourism: Impacts, Challenges, and Opportunities," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-25, September.
    11. Turrión Prats, Judith & Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio, 2017. "Seasonality Determinants for the Main Markets in Spain," Working Papers 2072/306517, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    12. Qiangsheng Hu & Xiaorong He & Hongbing Zhu & Peihong Yang, 2023. "Understanding Residents’ Intention to Adapt to Climate Change in Urban Destinations—A Case Study of Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Marcos à lvarez-Díaz & José María Chamorro-Rivas & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez, 2024. "The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on intra- and inter-regional domestic travel: Evidence from Spain," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 1039-1061, June.
    14. Mushawemhuka William & Rogerson Jayne M. & Saarinen Jarkko, 2018. "Nature-based tourism operators’ perceptions and adaptation to climate change in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 42(42), pages 115-127, December.
    15. Crotti, Daniele & Maggi, Elena & Pantelaki, Evangelia, 2022. "Urban cycling tourism. How can bikes and public transport ride together for sustainability?," FEEM Working Papers 317840, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    16. Rosselló-Nadal, Jaume, 2014. "How to evaluate the effects of climate change on tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 334-340.
    17. Chien Mu Yeh, 2020. "The influence of foreign institutional investors, institutional directors, and the share pledge ratio of directors on financial performance of tourism firms," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 179-201, February.
    18. Natalie L. B. Knowles & Daniel Scott & Robert Steiger, 2024. "Climate Change and the Future of Ski Tourism in Canada’s Western Mountains," Tourism and Hospitality, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-16, March.
    19. Davison, Lisa & Ryley, Tim, 2016. "An examination of the role of domestic destinations in satisfying holiday demands," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-84.
    20. Mahmoud Abou Kamar & Nadir Aliane & Islam Elbestawi & Mohamed Fathy Agina & Omar Alsetoohy, 2023. "Are Coastal Hotels Ready for Climate Change? The Case of Alexandria, Egypt," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-22, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:8:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s41685-023-00319-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.