Bankruptcy Risk Assessment Using An Improved Altman Model: A Case Study On Toyota Car Dealers In Romania

This study aims to analyse the applicability of the Altman model in assessing bankruptcy risk and in substantiating strategies for maintaining financial sustainability, using as a case study the network of 27 car dealers in Romania authorised to sell Toyota cars. Starting from the classic indicators of the Altman model, the model was improved by introducing a new financial indicator specific to the automotive industry, which captures the strategic role of inventories in the dealers' activity. Four multiple regression models were built and tested, and the comparative analysis highlighted the most statistically performing and most suitable model for forecasting. This improved model integrates all six financial indicators and reflects the economic realities of the car dealership sector, providing a basis for financial decision-making. The optimal strategy derived from the improved model includes: optimising working capital, increasing asset efficiency in generating sales, improving operational profitability, strengthening the capital structure, strategically managing inventories and maintaining a positive financial history. The study confirms the relevance of using the Altman model, adapted to the specificities of the Romanian car dealership market, as a tool to support decision-making and the development of proactive financial policies to ensure long-term stability and competitiveness.