IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/somere/v55y2026i1p85-119.html

Dynamics of Health Expectancy: An Introduction to the Multiple Multistate Method (MMM)

Author

Listed:
  • Tianyu Shen
  • Collin F. Payne
  • Maria Jahromi

Abstract

Many studies have compared individual measures of health expectancy across older populations by time-invariant characteristics. However, very few have included time-varying variables when calculating health expectancy. Even among older adults, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics are likely to change over the life course, and these changes may have substantial implications for health outcomes. This paper proposes a multiple multistate method (MMM) that situates the multistate model within the broader family of vector autoregressive models. Our approach allows the incorporation of the coevolution of multiple life course factors and provides a flexible yet simple way to model two or more time-varying variables with the multistate model. We demonstrate the MMM in two empirical applications, showing the flexibility of the approach to explore health expectancies with complex state spaces.

Suggested Citation

  • Tianyu Shen & Collin F. Payne & Maria Jahromi, 2026. "Dynamics of Health Expectancy: An Introduction to the Multiple Multistate Method (MMM)," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 55(1), pages 85-119, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:55:y:2026:i:1:p:85-119
    DOI: 10.1177/00491241241268775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00491241241268775
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00491241241268775?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eileen Crimmins & Mark Hayward & Yasuhiko Saito, 1994. "Changing mortality and morbidity rates and the health status and life expectancy of the older population," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(1), pages 159-175, February.
    2. Melody Y. Huang & Randall R. Rojas & Patrick D. Convery, 2020. "Forecasting stock market movements using Google Trend searches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2821-2839, December.
    3. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    4. Wilson, Chris M. & Oswald, Andrew J., "undated". "How Does Marriage Affect Physical and Psychological Health? A Survey of the Longitudinal Evidence," Economic Research Papers 269622, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. G Oskrochi & Ahmed Bani-Mustafa & Y Oskrochi, 2018. "Factors affecting psychological well-being: Evidence from two nationally representative surveys," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Robert G. Wood & Brian Goesling & Sarah Avellar, "undated". "The Effects of Marriage on Health: A Synthesis of Recent Research Evidence," Mathematica Policy Research Reports d69bf47785bc4154a4e184aa5, Mathematica Policy Research.
    3. Xavier Ramos, 2008. "Using Efficiency Analysis to Measure Individual Well-being with an Illustration for Catalonia," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Nanak Kakwani & Jacques Silber (ed.), Quantitative Approaches to Multidimensional Poverty Measurement, chapter 9, pages 155-175, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Marc Luy, 2020. "Understanding the Cross-Sectional Association Between Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Years: The CroHaM Hypothesis," VID Working Papers 2003, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Chen, An & Fuino, Michel & Sehner, Thorsten & Wagner, Joël, 2022. "Valuation of long-term care options embedded in life annuities," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 68-94, March.
    6. Rodgers III, William M. & Stratton, Leslie S., 2005. "The Male Marital Wage Differential: Race, Training, and Fixed Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 1745, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Graham, Liam & Oswald, Andrew J., 2010. "Hedonic capital, adaptation and resilience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 372-384, November.
    8. Stefania Capecchi & Maria Iannario & Rosaria Simone, 2018. "Well-Being and Relational Goods: A Model-Based Approach to Detect Significant Relationships," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 729-750, January.
    9. Irene Albarrán Lozano & Pablo J. Alonso-González & José Javier Núñez-Velázquez, 2021. "Estimation of Life Expectancy for Dependent Population in a Multi-State Context," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Kerry Liu, 2023. "America's decoupling from China: A perspective from stock markets," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 32-52, February.
    11. Powdthavee, Nattavudh, "undated". "Testing for Utility Interdependence in Marriage: Evidence from Panel Data," Economic Research Papers 269599, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    12. Karol Król & Dariusz Zdonek, 2023. "Cultural Heritage Topics in Online Queries: A Comparison between English- and Polish-Speaking Internet Users," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    13. William M. Rodgers & Leslie S. Stratton, 2010. "Male Marital Wage Differentials: Training, Personal Characteristics, And Fixed Effects," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 722-742, July.
    14. Kazuma Sato, 2020. "Does marriage improve subjective health in Japan?," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 247-286, April.
    15. María José Ayala & Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego & Rocío Arteaga-Sánchez, 2024. "Google search volume index and investor attention in stock market: a systematic review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    16. Zang, Emma & Zheng, Hui, 2018. "Does the sex ratio at sexual maturity affect men's later-life mortality risks? Evidence from historical China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 61-69.
    17. James N. Laditka & Douglas A. Wolf, 2004. "Duration Data from the National Long-Term Care Survey: Foundation for a Dynamic Multiple-Indicator Model of ADL Dependency," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 65, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    18. Puhr, Harald & Müllner, Jakob, 2024. "Vox populi, vox dei: A concept and measure for grassroots socio-political risk using Google Trends," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(2).
    19. Mata, Jutta & Frank, Ronald & Hertwig, Ralph, 2015. "Higher body mass index, less exercise, but healthier eating in married adults: Nine representative surveys across Europe," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 119-127.
    20. Cai, Lixin, 2010. "The relationship between health and labour force participation: Evidence from a panel data simultaneous equation model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 77-90, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:somere:v:55:y:2026:i:1:p:85-119. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.