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A new cumulative damage model for time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating structures

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  • Junxiang Li
  • Jianqiao Chen
  • Zhiqiang Chen

Abstract

Performance and reliability of structures will deteriorate with the effects of loads, environment, and interior factors of materials. In this article, a novel cumulative damage model is developed for time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating structures. The deterioration is a combination of three stochastic processes: the gradual deterioration posed by aging effects, the sudden deterioration caused by transient loads, and the additional deterioration introduced by sustained loads. The aging effect is modeled as a gamma process, while the transient load is described by a Poisson process. The sustained load is modeled by a stationary binomial process and a Poisson square wave process, respectively. The load threshold for three different scenarios are all considered and applied to not only the transient loads but also the sustained loads. The time-dependent reliability of deteriorating structures is then evaluated based on this model via semi-analytical methods or numerical simulation methods. Three numerical examples and an example involving a natural gas pipeline are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model for computing the time-dependent reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Junxiang Li & Jianqiao Chen & Zhiqiang Chen, 2020. "A new cumulative damage model for time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating structures," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 290-302, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:234:y:2020:i:2:p:290-302
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X19886157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. van Noortwijk, J.M. & van der Weide, J.A.M. & Kallen, M.J. & Pandey, M.D., 2007. "Gamma processes and peaks-over-threshold distributions for time-dependent reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1651-1658.
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    3. Kallen, M.J. & van Noortwijk, J.M., 2005. "Optimal maintenance decisions under imperfect inspection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 177-185.
    4. van Noortwijk, Jan M. & Cooke, Roger M. & Kok, Matthijs, 1995. "A Bayesian failure model based on isotropic deterioration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 270-282, April.
    5. An, Zongwen & Sun, Daoming, 2017. "Reliability modeling for systems subject to multiple dependent competing failure processes with shock loads above a certain level," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 129-138.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongshuang Feng & Xufeng Zhao, 2022. "Optimizations of discrete garbage collections in computer reliability systems," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(3), pages 451-457, June.

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