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The Influence of Narrative v. Statistical Information on Perceiving Vaccination Risks

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  • Cornelia Betsch
  • Corina Ulshöfer
  • Frank Renkewitz
  • Tilmann Betsch

Abstract

Background. Health-related information found on the Internet is increasing and impacts patient decision making, e.g. regarding vaccination decisions. In addition to statistical information (e.g. incidence rates of vaccine adverse events), narrative information is also widely available such as postings on online bulletin boards. Previous research has shown that narrative information can impact treatment decisions, even when statistical information is presented concurrently. Objectives. As the determinants of this effect are largely unknown, we will vary features of the narratives to identify mechanisms through which narratives impact risk judgments. Methods. An online bulletin board setting provided participants with statistical information and authentic narratives about the occurrence and nonoccurrence of adverse events. Experiment 1 followed a single factorial design with 1, 2, or 4 narratives out of 10 reporting adverse events. Experiment 2 implemented a 2 (statistical risk 20% vs. 40%) × 2 (2/10 vs. 4/10 narratives reporting adverse events) × 2 (high vs. low richness) × 2 (high vs. low emotionality) between-subjects design. Dependent variables were perceived risk of side-effects and vaccination intentions. Results. Experiment 1 shows an inverse relation between the number of narratives reporting adverse-events and vaccination intentions, which was mediated by the perceived risk of vaccinating. Experiment 2 showed a stronger influence of the number of narratives than of the statistical risk information. High (vs. low) emotional narratives had a greater impact on the perceived risk, while richness had no effect. Implications. The number of narratives influences risk judgments can potentially override statistical information about risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Cornelia Betsch & Corina Ulshöfer & Frank Renkewitz & Tilmann Betsch, 2011. "The Influence of Narrative v. Statistical Information on Perceiving Vaccination Risks," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(5), pages 742-753, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:31:y:2011:i:5:p:742-753
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X11400419
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    1. Winterbottom, Anna & Bekker, Hilary L. & Conner, Mark & Mooney, Andrew, 2008. "Does narrative information bias individual's decision making? A systematic review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(12), pages 2079-2088, December.
    2. René Lion & Ree M. Meertens & Ilja Bot, 2002. "Priorities in Information Desire about Unknown Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 765-776, August.
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    1. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:3:p:241-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eger, Jens & Kaplan, Lennart & Sternberg, Henrike, 2022. "How to reduce vaccination hesitancy? The relevance of evidence and its communicator," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 433, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    3. Niels Haase & Frank Renkewitz & Cornelia Betsch, 2013. "The Measurement of Subjective Probability: Evaluating the Sensitivity and Accuracy of Various Scales," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(10), pages 1812-1828, October.
    4. Zhan Xu, 2019. "Personal stories matter: topic evolution and popularity among pro- and anti-vaccine online articles," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 207-220, July.
    5. Victoria A. Shaffer & Suzanne Brodney & Teresa Gavaruzzi & Yaara Zisman-Ilani & Sarah Munro & Sian K. Smith & Elizabeth Thomas & Katherine D. Valentine & Hilary L. Bekker, 2021. "Do Personal Stories Make Patient Decision Aids More Effective? An Update from the International Patient Decision Aids Standards," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 41(7), pages 897-906, October.
    6. Malik, Amyn A. & Ahmed, Noureen & Shafiq, Mehr & Elharake, Jad A. & James, Erin & Nyhan, Kate & Paintsil, Elliott & Melchinger, Hannah Camille & Team, Yale Behavioral Interventions & Malik, Fauzia A. , 2023. "Behavioral interventions for vaccination uptake: A systematic review and meta-analysis," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Pieter Vanhuysse & Michael Jankowski & Markus Tepe, 2021. "Vaccine alliance building blocks: a conjoint experiment on popular support for international COVID-19 cooperation formats," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(3), pages 493-506, September.
    8. Freling, Traci H. & Yang, Zhiyong & Saini, Ritesh & Itani, Omar S. & Rashad Abualsamh, Ryan, 2020. "When poignant stories outweigh cold hard facts: A meta-analysis of the anecdotal bias," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 51-67.
    9. Alden, Dana L. & Friend, John & Schapira, Marilyn & Stiggelbout, Anne, 2014. "Cultural targeting and tailoring of shared decision making technology: A theoretical framework for improving the effectiveness of patient decision aids in culturally diverse groups," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-8.
    10. Cornelia Betsch & Niels Haase & Frank Renkewitz & Philipp Schmid, 2015. "The narrative bias revisited: What drives the biasing influence of narrative information on risk perceptions?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(3), pages 241-264, May.
    11. Yang Yang & Jill E. Hobbs, 2020. "The Power of Stories: Narratives and Information Framing Effects in Science Communication," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1271-1296, August.
    12. Hutchings, Siobhan, 2024. "Individuals perceptions of electric vehicles and related policy : Findings from an online experiment," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 74, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    13. Kunihiro Miyazaki & Takayuki Uchiba & Kenji Tanaka & Kazutoshi Sasahara, 2022. "Aggressive behaviour of anti-vaxxers and their toxic replies in English and Japanese," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    14. Claudio Deiana & Andrea Geraci & Gianluca Mazzarella & Fabio Sabatini, 2022. "Perceived risk and vaccine hesitancy: Quasi‐experimental evidence from Italy," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1266-1275, June.

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