IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jospec/v26y2025i5p543-561.html

Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Effect of NIL and Transfer Rule Changes on College Basketball Players Entering the NBA Draft

Author

Listed:
  • Cole McDaniel
  • Brian Meehan
  • E. Frank Stephenson

Abstract

We examine the impact of name, image, and likeness (NIL) opportunities and changes in transfer rules on the NBA draft decisions of men's college basketball players. The National Collegiate Athletic Association's 2021 liberalization of NIL and transfer eligibility rules enhanced college athletes’ earning potential, thereby possibly influencing their draft entry decisions. Analyzing college players among the top 100 prospects for each draft year between 2019 and 2024, we find that, following the NIL and transfer rule changes, more college players chose to forgo the draft and use the remaining collegiate eligibility. Our findings show a larger impact on players projected to be drafted outside of the first round and that the effect of the NIL and transfer rule changes has grown over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Cole McDaniel & Brian Meehan & E. Frank Stephenson, 2025. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Effect of NIL and Transfer Rule Changes on College Basketball Players Entering the NBA Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(5), pages 543-561, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:5:p:543-561
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025251328254
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15270025251328254
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/15270025251328254?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thilo Kunkel & Bradley J. Baker & Thomas A. Baker & Jason P. Doyle, 2021. "There is no nil in NIL: examining the social media value of student-athletes’ names, images, and likeness," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 839-861, October.
    2. David Berri & Stacey Brook & Aju Fenn, 2011. "From college to the pros: predicting the NBA amateur player draft," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 25-35, February.
    3. Rodenberg Ryan & Kim Jun Woo, 2012. "Testing the On-Court Efficacy of the NBA's Age Eligibility Rule," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-23, June.
    4. Richard J. Paulsen, 2022. "Peer effects and human capital accumulation: Time spent in college and productivity in the National Basketball Association," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 3611-3619, December.
    5. Brent A. Evans, 2018. "From college to the NBA: what determines a player’s success and what characteristics are NBA franchises overlooking?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 300-304, March.
    6. Peter A. Groothuis & James Richard Hill & Timothy J. Perri, 2007. "Early Entry in the NBA Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(3), pages 223-243, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard J. Paulsen, 2022. "Peer effects and human capital accumulation: Time spent in college and productivity in the National Basketball Association," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 3611-3619, December.
    2. Brent A. Evans & Joshua D. Pitts & Chris Clark, 2021. "Is the NBA Summer League Predictive of Performance for NBA Rookies?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 164-182, February.
    3. Tobias Berger & Frank Daumann, 2021. "Anchoring bias in the evaluation of basketball players: A closer look at NBA draft decision‐making," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1248-1262, July.
    4. Joseph Kuehn, 2023. "Adjusting for teammate effects in evaluating college prospects for the NBA draft," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 295-314, December.
    5. Richard J. Paulsen & Olivia Boucot, 2023. "Playing in a pandemic: The impact of family on performance in the NBA's “bubble”," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 2102-2109, June.
    6. Rodenberg Ryan & Kim Jun Woo, 2012. "Testing the On-Court Efficacy of the NBA's Age Eligibility Rule," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-23, June.
    7. W. David Allen, 2015. "The Demand for Younger and Older Workers," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(2), pages 127-158, February.
    8. Jill S. Harris, 2018. "State of Play: How Do College Football Programs Compete for Student Athletes?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(2), pages 269-281, March.
    9. Berri, David J. & Deutscher, Christian & Galletti, Arturo, 2015. "Born in the USA: national origin effects on time allocation in US and Spanish professional basketball," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 232, pages 41-50, May.
    10. Barbara Arel & Michael J. Tomas III, 2012. "The NBA Draft," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(3), pages 223-249, June.
    11. Akira Motomura & Kelsey V. Roberts & Daniel M. Leeds & Michael A. Leeds, 2016. "Does It Pay to Build Through the Draft in the National Basketball Association?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(5), pages 501-516, June.
    12. Michael A. Roach, 2022. "Career concerns and personnel investment in the Major League Baseball player draft," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 413-426, January.
    13. Wen-Jhan Jane, 2021. "The impact of cultural distance on salary: the case of Samurai Japan," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 85-123, March.
    14. Ichniowski, Casey & Preston, Anne, 2017. "Does March Madness lead to irrational exuberance in the NBA draft? High-value employee selection decisions and decision-making bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 105-119.
    15. Akira Motomura, 2016. "MoneyRoundball? The Drafting of International Players by National Basketball Association Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(2), pages 175-206, February.
    16. Helmut Dietl & Markus Lang & Johannes Orlowski & Philipp Wegelin, 2023. "The Effect of the Initial Distribution of Labor-Related Property Rights on the Allocative Efficiency of Labor Markets," Working Papers 398, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    17. Brad R. Humphreys & Yulia Chikish & Peter von Allmen, 2024. "Should I Stay or Should I Go Pro? Early NFL Draft Entry by NCAA FBS Underclassmen," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 346-368, April.
    18. Mulholland Jason & Jensen Shane T., 2014. "Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 381-396, December.
    19. Qi Ge & Brad R. Humphreys & Alexander Eisert, 2025. "Vertical Integration and Competitive Balance in Professional Sports: Evidence From Minor League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(6), pages 689-722, August.
    20. Jeff Borland & Mark Chicu & Robert D. Macdonald, 2009. "Do Teams Always Lose to Win? Performance Incentives and the Player Draft in the Australian Football League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(5), pages 451-484, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:26:y:2025:i:5:p:543-561. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.