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Practice or Profits

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  • Nancy Ammon Jianakoplos
  • Martin Shields

Abstract

This article investigates whether the outcomes of National Football League (NFL) preseason games are predictors of regular season NFL performance. Using data from the 2002-2010 NFL seasons, the empirical analysis does not find that either a team’s preseason winning percentage or a win in the third preseason game is a significant indicator of the team’s regular season winning percentage. This result contrasts with previous findings that preseason game performance did provide an indicator of regular season performance for the 1970-1991 NFL seasons. Preliminary evidence is presented that suggests that the change in the importance of preseason performance in predicting regular season performance started around 1994.

Suggested Citation

  • Nancy Ammon Jianakoplos & Martin Shields, 2012. "Practice or Profits," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 13(4), pages 451-465, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:13:y:2012:i:4:p:451-465
    DOI: 10.1177/1527002512450267
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael R. Donihue & David W. Findlay & Peter W. Newberry, 2007. "An Analysis of Attendance at Major League Baseball Spring Training Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(1), pages 39-61, February.
    2. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
    3. Anthony Stair & John Neral & Daniel Mizak & April Day, 2008. "The factors affecting team performance in the NFL: does off-field conduct matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 26(2), pages 1-9.
    4. John Vrooman, 2012. "The Economic Structure of the NFL," Sports Economics, Management, and Policy, in: Kevin G. Quinn (ed.), The Economics of the National Football League, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 7-31, Springer.
    5. Lawrence Hadley & Marc Poitras & John Ruggiero & Scott Knowles, 2000. "Performance evaluation of National Football League teams," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 63-70.
    6. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:26:y:2008:i:2:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Justin L. Davis & Kevin Krieger, 2017. "Preseason bias in the NFL and NBA betting markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(12), pages 1204-1212, March.

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    Keywords

    NFL; football; preseason;
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