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The Two-sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts

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  • Suthan Krishnarajan
  • Lasse Lykke Rørbæk

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the relationship between elections and coup attempts. We argue that elections have opposing effects on the risk of coup attempts, depending on the state of the economy in which they are held. Elections occurring in conditions of economic crisis spur anti-government mobilization and high levels of state repression. This increases the subsequent risk of coup attempts. Conversely, elections held during economic expansion induce pro-government mobilization and waning repression, which reduces the subsequent risk of coups. We find strong support for these propositions in a statistical analysis of 130 countries that conducted contested elections in the period 1952 to 2013. The results are robust to an array of model specifications, including when we account for election outcome, postelection economic performance, and the possibility that both elections and economic performance are endogenous to coup attempts.

Suggested Citation

  • Suthan Krishnarajan & Lasse Lykke Rørbæk, 2020. "The Two-sided Effect of Elections on Coup Attempts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(7-8), pages 1279-1306, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:64:y:2020:i:7-8:p:1279-1306
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002719900001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Limberg, Julian, 2022. "Building a tax state in the 21st century: Fiscal pressure, political regimes, and consumption taxation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

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