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Demographic-Economic Forecasting within an Activity-Commodity Framework: Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results

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  • P W J Batey
  • M Madden

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology which allows demographic and economic forecasting models to be integrated in a consistent manner. By embedding a conventional static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework, a number of interesting results are obtained. First, a new series of production, income, and employment multipliers is derived which offers considerable advantages over those currently in use. Second, partitioning the framework provides fresh insights into the complex relationships between demographic and economic variables. These developments in methodology are tested in a case study of Mersey side where an operational version of the framework is applied in a forecasting context.

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  • P W J Batey & M Madden, 1981. "Demographic-Economic Forecasting within an Activity-Commodity Framework: Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 13(9), pages 1067-1083, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:13:y:1981:i:9:p:1067-1083
    DOI: 10.1068/a131067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tiebout, Charles M, 1969. "An Empirical Regional Input-Output Projection Model: The State of Washington 1980," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 334-340, August.
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    1. P Nijkamp, 1983. "Information Systems for Regional Development Planning: A State-of-the-Art Survey," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 10(3), pages 283-302, September.
    2. Assoc. Prof. Guy R. West, 1999. "Notes On Some Common Misconceptions In Input-Output Impact Methodology," Discussion Papers Series 262, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Hewings, Geoffrey J D & Jensen, Rodney C, 1988. "Emerging Challenges in Regional Input-Output Analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 22(0), pages 43-53, February.
    4. Michael Sonis, 2005. "Central Place Theory after Christaller and Further Explorations - in Memory of August Loesch , 15 October 1906- 30 May 1945," ERSA conference papers ersa05p18, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Jan Oosterhaven & Gerard Eding & Dirk Stelder, 2001. "Clusters, Linkages and Interregional Spillovers: Methodology and Policy Implications for the Two Dutch Mainports and the Rural North," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 809-822.

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