IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v45y2024i5p105-123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Renewable Energy and Equilibrium Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Schwenen
  • Karsten Neuhoff

Abstract

We study the impact of renewable energy on forward markets for electricity. Previous literature shows that forward prices are determined by time-varying demand and volatile spot prices. We introduce supply risk from renewable generation and find that stochastic renewable output mitigates income risk for generating firms, in particular when negative shocks to renewable output have large positive price impact. This risk off-setting effect leads to reduced hedging needs for generating companies and increases the forward premium. Using five years of high-frequency spot and futures market data, we confirm our model empirically. In sum, our findings suggest that intermittent renewable generation changes firm’s hedging incentives and has significant impact on forward prices for electricity. JEL Classification: G11, G13, Q42

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Schwenen & Karsten Neuhoff, 2024. "Renewable Energy and Equilibrium Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(5), pages 105-123, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:45:y:2024:i:5:p:105-123
    DOI: 10.1177/01956574241241878
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01956574241241878
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/01956574241241878?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank A. Wolak, 2007. "Quantifying the supply-side benefits from forward contracting in wholesale electricity markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 1179-1209.
    2. Neuhoff, Karsten & Wolter, Sophia & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2016. "Power markets with Renewables: New perspectives for the European Target Model," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 37, pages 3-38.
    3. Koichiro Ito & Mar Reguant, 2016. "Sequential Markets, Market Power, and Arbitrage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1921-1957, July.
    4. Richard Green & Nicholas Vasilakos, 2012. "Storing Wind for a Rainy Day: What Kind of Electricity Does Denmark Export?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 33(3), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Karsten Neuhoff & Sophia Wolter & Sebastian Schwenen, 2016. "Power Markets with Renewables: New Perspectives for the European Target Model," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(2_suppl), pages 23-38, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert & Douglas Silveira, 2023. "Strategic interaction between wholesale and ancillary service markets," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, , vol. 24(4), pages 174-198, December.
    2. Lundin, Erik & Tangerås, Thomas P., 2020. "Cournot competition in wholesale electricity markets: The Nordic power exchange, Nord Pool," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Fatih Karanfil and Yuanjing Li, 2017. "The Role of Continuous Intraday Electricity Markets: The Integration of Large-Share Wind Power Generation in Denmark," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Bohland, Moritz & Schwenen, Sebastian, 2022. "Renewable support and strategic pricing in electricity markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Moritz Bohland & Sebastian Schwenen, 2020. "Technology Policy and Market Structure: Evidence from the Power Sector," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1856, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David & Ralph, Daniel, 2013. "Supply function equilibria: Step functions and continuous representations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1509-1551.
    7. Rintamäki, Tuomas & Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Strategic offering of a flexible producer in day-ahead and intraday power markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 1136-1153.
    8. Liski, Matti & Montero, Juan-Pablo, 2014. "Forward trading in exhaustible-resource oligopoly," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 122-146.
    9. Elberg, Christina & Hagspiel, Simeon, 2015. "Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 260-272.
    10. Davi-Arderius, Daniel & Schittekatte, Tim, 2023. "Carbon emissions impacts of operational network constraints: The case of Spain during the Covid-19 crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Jacqueline Adelowo & Moritz Bohland, 2023. "It’s in the Data – Improved Market Power Mitigation in Electricity Markets," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 24(05), pages 46-51, September.
    12. Nancy L. Rose, 2014. "Learning from the Past: Insights for the Regulation of Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned?, pages 1-23, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. David P. Brown & David E. M. Sappington, 2023. "Market Structure, Risk Preferences, and Forward Contracting Incentives," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 1146-1202, December.
    14. Pär Holmberg, 2017. "Pro‐competitive Rationing in Multi‐unit Auctions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 372-395, October.
    15. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    16. Karsten Neuhoff & Jörn C. Richstein & Mats Kröger, 2023. "Reacting to Changing Paradigms: How and Why to Reform Electricity Markets," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 127, number pbk189, April.
    17. Jesse Buchsbaum & Catherine Hausman & Johanna L Mathieu & Jing Peng, 2024. "Spillovers from ancillary services to wholesale energy markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 55(1), pages 87-111, March.
    18. Paul Simshauser & Farhad Billimoria & Craig Rogers, 2021. "Optimising VRE plant capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Working Papers EPRG2121, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    19. Nicholas Ryan, 2017. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Infrastructure in the Indian Electricity Market," NBER Working Papers 23106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Carlo Fezzi & Luca Mosetti, 2018. "Size matters: Estimation sample length and electricity price forecasting accuracy," DEM Working Papers 2018/10, Department of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk mitigation; forward markets; electricity; renewable energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:45:y:2024:i:5:p:105-123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.