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Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability

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  • Severin Borenstein

Abstract

One of the most critical concerns that customers have voiced in the debate over real-time retail electricity pricing is that they would be exposed to risk from fluctuations in their electricity cost. The concern seems to be that a customer could find itself consuming a large quantity of power on the day that prices skyrocket, resulting in a high monthly bill. I analyze the magnitude of this risk, using demand data from 1142 large industrial customers, and then ask how much of this risk can be eliminated through various straightforward financial instruments. I find that very simple hedging strategies—forward purchase contracts that are already used with many RTP programs—can eliminate more than 80% of the bill volatility that would otherwise occur. I then show that a slightly more sophisticated application of these forward power purchases can significantly enhance their effect on reducing bill volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Severin Borenstein, 2007. "Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(2), pages 111-130, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:28:y:2007:i:2:p:111-130
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No2-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Pretto, Madeline, 2021. "Tail-risk Comprehension and Protection in Real-time Electricity Pricing : Experimental Evidence," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 25, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    2. Cabot, Clément & Villavicencio, Manuel, 2024. "The demand-side flexibility in liberalised power market: A review of current market design and objectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Allcott, Hunt, 2011. "Rethinking real-time electricity pricing," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 820-842.
    4. Fred Schroyen & Adekola Oyenuga, 2011. "Optimal pricing and capacity choice for a public service under risk of interruption," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 252-272, June.
    5. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2015. "Can price volatility enhance market power? The case of renewable technologies in competitive electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 70-90.
    6. Kopsakangas Savolainen, Maria & Svento, Rauli, 2012. "Real-Time Pricing in the Nordic Power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1131-1142.
    7. James Cochell & Peter Schwarz & Thomas Taylor, 2012. "Using real-time electricity data to estimate response to time-of-use and flat rates: an application to emissions," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 135-158, October.
    8. Streimikiene, Dalia & Siksnelyte, Indre, 2016. "Sustainability assessment of electricity market models in selected developed world countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 72-82.
    9. Winzer, Christian & Ramírez-Molina, Héctor & Hirth, Lion & Schlecht, Ingmar, 2024. "Profile contracts for electricity retail customers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Sioshansi, Ramteen, 2016. "Retail electricity tariff and mechanism design to incentivize distributed renewable generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 498-508.
    11. Staudt, Philipp & Dann, David, 2025. "Perceived complexity and effectiveness of dynamic electricity rate designs for smart markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 394(C).
    12. S. Borenstein, 2013. "Effective and Equitable Adoption of Opt-In Residential Dynamic Electricity Pricing," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 42(2), pages 127-160, March.
    13. Willems, Bert & Morbee, Joris, 2010. "Market completeness: How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 786-795, July.
    14. Reus, Lorenzo & Munoz, Francisco D. & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2018. "Retail consumers and risk in centralized energy auctions for indexed long-term contracts in Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 566-577.
    15. repec:isu:genstf:201101010800001360 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ramteen Sioshansi, . "Retail Electricity Tariff and Mechanism Design to Incentivise Distributed Generation," Chapters, in: Shigeru Kimura & Youngho Chang & Yanfei Li (ed.), Financing Renewable Energy Development in East Asia Summit Countries A Primer of Effective Policy Instruments, chapter 9, pages 267-296, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    17. Yumi Yoshida & Kenta Tanaka & Shunsuke Managi, 2017. "Which dynamic pricing rule is most preferred by consumers?—Application of choice experiment," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Lo Prete, Chiara & Palmer, Karen & Robertson, Molly, 2025. "Time for a market upgrade? A review of wholesale electricity market designs for the future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Paul L. Joskow, 2012. "Creating a Smarter U.S. Electricity Grid," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 29-48, Winter.
    20. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2017. "Welfare implications of capacity payments in a price-capped electricity sector: A case study of the Texas market (ERCOT)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-285.
    21. Biggar, Darryl R. & Hesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza, 2024. "Optimal retail contracts with contractible uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    22. Pébereau, Charles & Remmy, Kevin, 2023. "Barriers to real-time electricity pricing: Evidence from New Zealand," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    23. Lo Prete, Chiara & Palmer, Karen & Robertson, Molly, 2024. "Time for a Market Upgrade? A Review of Wholesale Electricity Market Designs for the Future," RFF Reports 24-09, Resources for the Future.
    24. Arlt, Marie-Louise & Chassin, David & Rivetta, Claudio & Sweeney, James, 2024. "Impact of real-time pricing and residential load automation on distribution systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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