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‘Second-order’ versus ‘Issue-voting’ Effects in EU Referendums

Author

Listed:
  • John Garry

    (Queen’s University Belfast, Northern Ireland, j.garry@qub.ac.uk)

  • Michael Marsh

    (Trinity College Dublin, Republic of Ireland, mmarsh@tcd.ie)

  • Richard Sinnott

    (University College Dublin, Republic of Ireland, Richard.Sinnott@ucd.ie)

Abstract

Are referendums on EU treaties decided by voters’ attitudes to Europe (the ‘issue-voting’ explanation) or by voters’ attitudes to their national political parties and incumbent national government (the ‘second-order election model’ explanation)? In one scenario, these referendums will approximate to deliberative processes that will be decided by people’s views of the merits of European integration. In the other scenario, they will be plebiscites on the performance of national governments. We test the two competing explanations of the determinants of voting in EU referendums using evidence from the two Irish referendums on the Nice Treaty. We find that the issue-voting model outperforms the second-order model in both referendums. However, we also find that issue-voting was particularly important in the more salient and more intense second referendum. Most strikingly, attitudes to EU enlargement were much stronger predictors of vote at Nice 2 than at Nice 1. This finding about the rise in importance of attitudes to the EU points to the importance of campaigning in EU referendums.

Suggested Citation

  • John Garry & Michael Marsh & Richard Sinnott, 2005. "‘Second-order’ versus ‘Issue-voting’ Effects in EU Referendums," European Union Politics, , vol. 6(2), pages 201-221, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:6:y:2005:i:2:p:201-221
    DOI: 10.1177/1465116505051983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. MARK FRANKLIN & MICHAEL MARSH & LAUREN McLAREN, 1994. "Uncorking the Bottle: Popular Opposition to European Unification in the Wake of Maastricht," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 455-472, December.
    2. Marsh, Michael, 1998. "Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 591-607, October.
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