From Fordism to?: New Technology, Labour Markets and Unions

In the burgeoning literature, both popular and academic, on the 'newa technology', there is a general consensus that we are on the verge of sweeping changes in the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. There is, however, rather less agreement on the social consequences. This paper considers one of the negative scenarios that has recently gained a certain prominence: that of the 'declining middle'. This scenario is built on the assumption that, failing countervailing measures, the current wave of technical innovation could contribute to a dramatic restructuring of the postwar income structure replacing the 'income pyramid' with an 'income hour-glass' by destroying many of the better paid blueand white-collar jobs in the countries of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). The primary focus of the paper will be to consider how the character of a country's industrial relations system might mitigate or exacerbate such polarisation tendencies, through a comparative analysis of recent developments in the United States (US), Japan, West Germany and Sweden. It is assumed that the way in which the industrial relations system is organised in each country will exercise a marked effect on the way in which new techniques are put to use in the production process. It will also be determinant in the distribution of the national income and, in this way, affect a firm's choice of product strategy.