Fixing Social Security: Major Reform or Minor Repairs?

Without congressional action, the Social Security reserve fund will be exhausted by 2035. When that occurs, benefit payments must be cut by one-fifth. To avoid that outcome, Congress must agree on a reform plan that boosts revenues, cuts pensions, or does both. The choice of a reform strategy should depend on voters’ support for the goals of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program and evidence about the program’s effectiveness in achieving those goals. This article explains the aims of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program, briefly describes how the program attempts to achieve those aims, and considers evidence on whether the goals have been achieved and at what cost. It then considers alternative reforms that address OASI’s main problem, namely, the long-term shortfall in program revenues compared with pension commitments. It concludes by identifying the reforms that seem best suited to achieving OASI’s core aims while conforming to voter preferences.