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Precision, Consistency and Bias in Emerging Equity Markets

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  • WS Nel
  • NJ le Roux

Abstract

The use of multiples is a popular approach employed by analysts to perform valuations. These multiples are based on optimal value drivers, the valuation performance of which should be underpinned by empirical findings from carefully designed, unbiased research initiatives. This paper firstly investigates the risk of biasing the design of market-based studies which aim to test the valuation performance of individual value drivers. The evidence revealed that, when testing the valuation performance of value drivers, there is an inherent risk of biasing the design of a study of this kind, and therefore, its outcome. Secondly, the paper presents evidence in support of the consistency of previous research findings regarding the valuation performance of individual value drivers in the South African market over the period 2001-2010. To this end, the paper introduces a new approach for the analysis of multidimensional equity valuation research data in the form of principal component analysis (PCA)-based biplots. Thirdly, the paper provides evidence that multiples-based modeling seems to be biased to the downside, which is an important consideration for analysts who choose to adjust their valuations outside of these models.

Suggested Citation

  • WS Nel & NJ le Roux, 2014. "Precision, Consistency and Bias in Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 386-399.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:6:y:2014:i:5:p:386-399
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v6i5.501
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    1. Volker Herrmann & Frank Richter, 2003. "Pricing With Performance-Controlled Multiples," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 55(3), pages 194-219, July.
    2. Richard G. Barker, 1999. "Survey and Market-based Evidence of Industry-dependence in Analysts' Preferences Between the Dividend Yield and Price-earnings Ratio Valuation Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3-4), pages 393-418.
    3. Cheng, C S Agnes & McNamara, Ray, 2000. "The Valuation Accuracy of the Price-Earnings and Price-Book Benchmark Valuation Methods," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 349-370, December.
    4. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Charles M. C. Lee, 2002. "Who Is My Peer? A Valuation‐Based Approach to the Selection of Comparable Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 407-439, May.
    5. Jing Liu & Doron Nissim & Jacob Thomas, 2002. "Equity Valuation Using Multiples," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 135-172, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. WS Nel, 2015. "An Optimal Peer Group Selection Strategy for Multiples-Based Modelling in the South African Equity Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 7(3), pages 30-46.

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