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Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change


  • Golub, Alla

    () (Purdue University)

  • W. Hertel, Thomas

    () (Purdue University)


The goal of this work is to investigate the role of global integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. We utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model that has been modified to incorporate the most important economic features driving global land demand and supply, and simulate a baseline period from 1997- 2025 over which land rents world-wide rise sharply and the global allocation of land between agriculture and forestry changes rather significantly in some regions. Through a series of restricted simulations of the model, we are able to isolate the impact on land markets of the following elements of growth and globalization: (i) population growth, (ii) real income growth, (iii) access of new forest lands, and (iv) international trade. We found that international trade plays a very substantial role in mediating between the land-abundant, slower growing economies of the Americas and Australia/New Zealand, and the land-scarce, rapidly growing economies of Asia. In summary, when combined, the forces of globalization are expected to play a large role in determining the pattern of land use change.

Suggested Citation

  • Golub, Alla & W. Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 463-488.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0442

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    Cited by:

    1. Bou√ęt, Antoine & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Valin, Hugo, 2010. "Modeling the global trade and environmental impacts of biofuel policies," IFPRI discussion papers 1018, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Roberto Roson & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "Demand-Driven Structural Change in Applied General Equilibrium Models," IEFE Working Papers 96, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Van Butsic & Maggi Kelly & Max A. Moritz, 2015. "Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper 52786, World Bank.

    More about this item


    land use; climate change policy; baseline; general equilibrium; agro-ecological zones;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns


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