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Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change

Author

Listed:
  • Golub, Alla

    (Purdue University)

  • W. Hertel, Thomas

    (Purdue University)

Abstract

The goal of this work is to investigate the role of global integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. We utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model that has been modified to incorporate the most important economic features driving global land demand and supply, and simulate a baseline period from 1997- 2025 over which land rents world-wide rise sharply and the global allocation of land between agriculture and forestry changes rather significantly in some regions. Through a series of restricted simulations of the model, we are able to isolate the impact on land markets of the following elements of growth and globalization: (i) population growth, (ii) real income growth, (iii) access of new forest lands, and (iv) international trade. We found that international trade plays a very substantial role in mediating between the land-abundant, slower growing economies of the Americas and Australia/New Zealand, and the land-scarce, rapidly growing economies of Asia. In summary, when combined, the forces of globalization are expected to play a large role in determining the pattern of land use change.

Suggested Citation

  • Golub, Alla & W. Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 463-488.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0442
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Roson & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "Demand-Driven Structural Change in Applied General Equilibrium Models," IEFE Working Papers 96, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Hertel, Thomas W. & Keeney, Roman, 2009. "The Poverty Impacts of Global Commodity Trade Liberalization," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 52786, World Bank.
    3. Bouët, Antoine & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Valin, Hugo, 2010. "Modeling the global trade and environmental impacts of biofuel policies," IFPRI discussion papers 1018, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Weng, Yuwei & Chang, Shiyan & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Exploring the impacts of biofuel expansion on land use change and food security based on a land explicit CGE model: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 514-525.
    6. Ngeleza, Guyslain K. & Muhammad, Andrew, 2008. "Preferential Trade Agreements between the Monetary Community of Central Africa and the European Union," Conference papers 331732, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. André Alves & Filipe Marcelino & Eduardo Gomes & Jorge Rocha & Mário Caetano, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Land-Use Dynamics in Continental Portugal 1995–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-29, November.
    8. Roberto Roson & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "Assessing Long Run Structural Change in Multi-Sector General Equilibrium Models," EcoMod2017 10257, EcoMod.
    9. Roson, Roberto & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2017. "Demand-Driven Structural Change in Applied General Equilibrium Models," Conference papers 332902, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Lakatos, Csilla, 2010. "Knowledge Capital, Product Differentiation and Market Structure: a Comparative Static CGE Analysis," Conference papers 331958, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Ebunoluwa O. Ajagun & George Ashiagbor & Winston A. Asante & Benjamin A. Gyampoh & Kwasi A. Obirikorang & Emmanuel Acheampong, 2022. "Cocoa eats the food: expansion of cocoa into food croplands in the Juabeso District, Ghana," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(2), pages 451-470, April.
    12. Tatiana N. Litvinova & Galina A. Khmeleva & Lilia V. Ermolina & Tatiana V. Alferova & Irina V. Cheryomushkina, 2016. "Scenarios of Business Development in the Agricultural Machinery Market Under Conditions of International Trade Integration," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 10(4), December.
    13. Van Butsic & Maggi Kelly & Max A. Moritz, 2015. "Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    land use; climate change policy; baseline; general equilibrium; agro-ecological zones;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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