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Global Economic Integration and Land Use Change

  • Golub, Alla


    (Purdue University)

  • W. Hertel, Thomas


    (Purdue University)

The goal of this work is to investigate the role of global integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. We utilize a dynamic general equilibrium model that has been modified to incorporate the most important economic features driving global land demand and supply, and simulate a baseline period from 1997- 2025 over which land rents world-wide rise sharply and the global allocation of land between agriculture and forestry changes rather significantly in some regions. Through a series of restricted simulations of the model, we are able to isolate the impact on land markets of the following elements of growth and globalization: (i) population growth, (ii) real income growth, (iii) access of new forest lands, and (iv) international trade. We found that international trade plays a very substantial role in mediating between the land-abundant, slower growing economies of the Americas and Australia/New Zealand, and the land-scarce, rapidly growing economies of Asia. In summary, when combined, the forces of globalization are expected to play a large role in determining the pattern of land use change.

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Article provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 463-488

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Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0442
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