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Probabilismo: ética y economía


  • Alberto Castrillón

    () (Universidad Externado de Colombia)


This essay makes reference to the Scholastic doctrine of moral probabilism and explores the possible links between this theological perspective and the modern concept of probability. It shows that these concepts are more related than is suggested by common etymological approaches. Moral probabilism helped confessors to solve cases of conscience, without reducing the problem of human liberty to the extremes of randomness or determinism. Also, it suggests an analogy between the probabilistic approach and Keynes’s Treatise on Probability: for both Scholastic authors and Keynes economic analysis emerges from moral analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Castrillón, 2003. "Probabilismo: ética y economía," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 5(9), pages 55-77, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:5:y:2003:i:9:p:55-77

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:2:p:171-261 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hendry, David F. & Learmer, Edward E. & Poirier, Dale J., 1990. "A Conversation on Econometric Methodology," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(02), pages 171-261, June.
    3. E. F. Shawyer, 1998. "Editorial," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 105-105, January.
    4. de Roover, Raymond, 1958. "The Concept of the Just Price: Theory and Economic Policy," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 418-434, December.
    5. Miguel Urrutia, 1997. "Banco Central Independiente y democracia," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, December.
    6. Fitzgibbons, Athol, 1988. "Keynes's Vision: A New Political Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286417.
    7. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
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    More about this item


    probabilism; scholastic; ethics and economics;

    JEL classification:

    • A11 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Role of Economics; Role of Economists
    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • B11 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Preclassical (Ancient, Medieval, Mercantilist, Physiocratic)


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