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Sur les taux d'intérêt en France


  • Jean-Michel Grandmont
  • Gérard Neel


[fre] Sur les taux d'interêt en France. . Les auteurs étudient dans cet article la structure des taux d'intérêt en France et montrent que la théorie de 1' « habitat préféré » de F. Modigliani et R. Sutch donne de bons résultats. Le taux long des obligations est d'autre part expliqué de manière satisfaisante par les taux de croissance courant et passés de la production industrielle et des prix. Il est finalement montré que l'inflation entraîne dans le long terme une baisse importante du taux long réel. Les données sont trimestrielles et couvrent la période 1960 I-1971 IV. [eng] About 1nterest rates in France. . In this paper, the authors study the term structure of intetest rates in France and show that F. Modigliani and R. Sutch's theory of preferred habitat fit s well French data. On the other hand, the long rate on bonds is well explained by current and past rates of growth of industrial output and of prices. Finally, it is shown that, in the long run, inflation leads to a substantial decrease of the real long rate. Datas used are quarterly figures covering 1960 I -1971 IV.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Michel Grandmont & Gérard Neel, 1973. "Sur les taux d'intérêt en France," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(3), pages 460-472.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1973_num_24_3_408093
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1973.408093
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1973.408093

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. William E. Gibson, 1970. "The Lag in the Effect of Monetary Policy on Income and Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 288-300.
    2. Modigliani, Franco & Sutch, Richard, 1969. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Re-examination of the Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 112-120, February.
    3. Gibson, William E, 1970. "Price Expectations Effects on Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 19-34, March.
    4. Hamburger, Michael J & Latta, Cynthia M, 1969. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 71-83, February.
    5. Thomas J. Sargent, 1969. "Commodity Price Expectations and the Interest Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 127-140.
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