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Quelle est la configuration des cycles aux États-Unis ? Une modélisation dynamique traditionnelle

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  • Patrick Artus
  • François Lecointe

Abstract

[eng] What is the Configuration of Cycles in the United States? A Traditional Dynamic Model, by Patrick Artus, François Lecointe. The "normal"confïguration of economic cycles has recently been under review in the United States. After examination of the behaviours or mechanisms causing cyclical fluctuations, we have derived a dynamic econometric model for the American economy. This makes it possible to determine the scope, periodicity and sources of American economic cycles, and thus to clarify current debate on what emergence from recession will be like. [ger] Der Verlauf der Konjunkturzyklen in den Vereinigten Staaten. Eine herkömmliche dynamische Modellbildung, von Patrick Artus, François Lecointe. In den Vereinigten Staaten ist der "normale" Verlauf eines Konjunkturzyklus in jüngster Zeit Gegenstand zahlreicher Diskussionen gewesen. Nachdem untersucht worden ist, welche Verhaltensweisen oder Mechanismen zyklische Schwankungen verursachen können, wird in diesem Artikel ein dynamisches Ökonomerriemodell für die amerikanische Wirtschaft geschätzt. Dies ermöglicht es, die Dauer, die Periodizität und die Ursache der amerikanischen Konjunkturzyklen zu bestimmen, und gibt Aufschluß über die Diskussionen, die gegenwärtig tiber die Möglichkeit der Überwindung der Rezession geführt werden. [spa] Configuración de los ciclos económicos en los Estados Unidos. Modelización dinámica conventional, por Patrick Artus y François Lecointe. La configuración "normal" de un ciclo económico fue sometida recientemente a un análisis en los Estados Unidos. Tras examinar los comportamientos o los mecanismos que pueden originar fluctuaciones cîclicas, se élabora un modelo econométrico dinámico para la economía estadounidense. Esto permite determinar la importancia, la periodicidad y la fuente de los ciclos económicos estadounidenses y aclarar así los debates actuales respecto a las soluciones que permitan salir de la recesión. [fre] Quelle est la configuration des cycles aux États-Unis ? Une modélisation dynamique traditionnelle, par Patrick Artus, François Lecointe. La configuration "normale" d'un cycle économique a fait récemment l'objet de nombreuses interrogations aux États-Unis. Après avoir examiné quels comportements ou mécanismes pouvaient être à l'origine de fluctuations cycliques, nous estimons un modèle économétrique dynamique pour l'économie américaine. Cela permet de déterminer l'ampleur, la périodicité et la source des cycles économiques américains, et ainsi d'éclairer les débats présents sur le profil de sortie de récession.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Artus & François Lecointe, 1993. "Quelle est la configuration des cycles aux États-Unis ? Une modélisation dynamique traditionnelle," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 107(1), pages 1-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1993_num_107_1_5594 Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1993.5594
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Barro & Robert G. King, 1984. "Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 817-839.
    2. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-336, May.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S & Parkinson, Martin L, 1991. "Procyclical Labor Productivity and Competing Theories of the Business Cycle: Some Evidence from Interwar U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 439-459, June.
    4. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114.
    5. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
    7. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    8. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
    9. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    10. Baxter, Marianne, 1991. "Business cycles, stylized facts, and the exchange rate regime: evidence from the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-88, March.
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