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Montenegrin Quarterly Macroeconomic Econometric Model


  • Štiblar Franjo
  • Oplotnik Žan
  • Vukotić Veselin


Specific features of quarterly econometric model for Montenegro are dealing with the euroization of the economy, de facto separation of Montenegrin economy from Serbian economy. The model is specified with final demand as driving force of the economic growth, but, in addition, with some specific detail of supply side economics regarding negative role of government expenditures and taxation on some forms of activity. Key features of the model are: inclusion of relevant real and financial sectors of the economy, estimation of labour and capital market, division of labour market on tradable and non-tradable part, creation of activity variable in addition to industrial production and identifying final demand as driving force of the economy. Special features are connected with peculiarities of Montenegrin economy, which include lack of domestic currency and fiscal restraint following Maastricht criteria. Model enables the analysis of measures of monetary, fiscal and some employment policy. The ultimate goal of building model was to describe functioning of Montenegrin economy which needs to be better understood by authorities (government, central bank). Next, model is intended to help identifying and quantifying appropriate measures of economic policy; their quantification should be consistent with the major economic goals authorities declared in their yearly economic policy resolutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Štiblar Franjo & Oplotnik Žan & Vukotić Veselin, 2006. "Montenegrin Quarterly Macroeconomic Econometric Model," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(2), pages 156-171.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2006:y:2006:i:2:id:282:p:156-171

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    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2007. "Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 537-566, April.
    2. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2017. "Fear of stagnation? A review on growth imperatives," VÖÖ Discussion Papers 6/2017, Vereinigung für Ökologische Ökonomie e.V. (VÖÖ).
    3. Tisdell, Clem, 2011. "Biodiversity conservation, loss of natural capital and interest rates," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2511-2515.
    4. repec:eee:appene:v:195:y:2017:i:c:p:837-849 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Blair, Andrew R. & Mandelker, Gershon N. & Saaty, Thomas L. & Whitaker, Rozann, 2010. "Forecasting the resurgence of the U.S. economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 114-121, September.
    6. Frank, Björn & Enkawa, Takao & Schvaneveldt, Shane J. & Herbas Torrico, Boris, 2015. "Antecedents and consequences of innate willingness to pay for innovations: Understanding motivations and consumer preferences of prospective early adopters," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 252-266.

    More about this item


    macroeconomic models; economic policy; econometric models; transitional economies; Montenegro; economic systems;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies


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