How to achieve the net-zero target? Lessons learned from past transformations

Transformations–defined as deep, radical, non-linear, multi-dimensional, systemic processes of change–are required to avert serious threats to humanity and the environment. In this study, we have analysed past transformations in Switzerland in four environmental domains, with the aim to draw conclusions for current challenges, such as the net-zero transformation. Firstly, we have conceptualised and defined transformations. Secondly, we have applied and further developed two theoretical frameworks to (i) identify actual transformations in the four domains, and (ii) analyse crucial characteristics of these profound changes. Furthermore, we have examined relevant enabling and hindering factors for transformations. Our study is based on literature review and expert interviews, as well as triangulation workshops to align the collected information. We conclude that providing general blueprints for transformations is not possible due to the complexity and context-specific nature of these processes. However, for the net-zero transformation to be successful, we found that unprecedent efforts are needed with respect to pace, sectors involved, levels of initiative, mindset change in the broader population, and involvement of technology and research. Specifically, we recommend fast action to (i) implement a steering committee combined with citizens’ assemblies and cross-sectoral discussion platforms, (ii) encourage different actors to take initiatives at multiple levels, and (iii) enable a broad mindset change across different societal groups.Author summary: Heat waves, droughts, biodiversity loss, urban sprawl and floods are just some of the many challenges humanity faces today that must be tackled to prevent greater damage to nature, society, and economy. Current systems (e.g., energy, agriculture, transportation) must change profoundly to ensure a sustainable way of living. To better understand how such profound changes, so-called transformations, occur, how they can be characterized, and what enables and hinders them, we analysed past transformations in four environmental domains in Switzerland. The aim was to draw lessons from these profound changes for the ‘net-zero transformation’, which is necessary to reach the Swiss net-zero carbon emissions target set for 2050. We found that there is no general recipe for successful transformations due to the multiple, complex, and context-specific processes involved. We concluded that—compared to the past transformations–the net-zero transformation needs to occur faster, involve more sectors, be initiated at multiple levels, and be strongly supported by technology and research. Our study offers valuable insights into how transformations occur, and which prerequisites are necessary for the net-zero transformation to be successful.