IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0309367.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Fengfeng Li
  • Qunzheng Mu
  • Delong Ma
  • Qunhong Wu

Abstract

In order to predict the global potential distribution range of Ixodes pacificus (I. pacificus) under different climate scenario models in the future, analyze the major climate factors affecting its distribution, and provide references for the transformation of passive vector surveillance into active vector surveillance, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used in this study to estimate the global potential distribution range of I. pacificus under historical climate scenarios and different future climate scenarios. The global distribution data of I. pacificus were screened by ENMtools and ArcGIS 10.8 software, and a total of 563 distribution data of I. pacificus were obtained. Maxent 3.4.1 and R 4.0.3 were used to screen climate variables according to the contribution rate of environmental variables, knife cutting method and correlation analysis of variables. R 4.0.3 was used to calculate model regulation frequency doubling and feature combination to adjust MaxEnt parameters. The model results showed that the training omission rate was in good agreement with the theoretical omission rate, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.978. Among the included environmental variables, the Tmin2 (minimum temperature in February) and Prec1 (precipitation in January) contributed the most to the model, providing more effective information for the distribution of I. pacificus. MaxEnt model revealed that the distribution range of I. pacificus was dynamically changing. The main potential suitable areas are distributed in North America, South America, Europe, Oceania and Asia. Under the future climate scenario model, the potential suitable areas show a downward trend, but the countries and regions ieeeeeeenvolved in the suitable areas do not change much. Therefore, the invasion risk of the potential suitable area of I. pacificus should be paid attention to.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengfeng Li & Qunzheng Mu & Delong Ma & Qunhong Wu, 2024. "Predicting the potential global distribution of Ixodes pacificus under climate change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0309367
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0309367
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0309367
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0309367&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0309367?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ren-Yan Duan & Xiao-Quan Kong & Min-Yi Huang & Wei-Yi Fan & Zhi-Gao Wang, 2014. "The Predictive Performance and Stability of Six Species Distribution Models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-8, November.
    2. R. Iestyn Woolway & Eleanor Jennings & Tom Shatwell & Malgorzata Golub & Don C. Pierson & Stephen C. Maberly, 2021. "Lake heatwaves under climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7842), pages 402-407, January.
    3. Shcheglovitova, Mariya & Anderson, Robert P., 2013. "Estimating optimal complexity for ecological niche models: A jackknife approach for species with small sample sizes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 269(C), pages 9-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu, Yongquan & Liu, Guilin & Xian, Yuyang & Tang, Jiaqi & Zhong, Liming, 2024. "Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. H. Oğuz Çoban & Ömer K. Örücü & E. Seda Arslan, 2020. "MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Holder, Anna M. & Markarian, Arev & Doyle, Jessie M. & Olson, John R., 2020. "Predicting geographic distributions of fishes in remote stream networks using maximum entropy modeling and landscape characterizations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 433(C).
    4. Boyang Liu & Xiang Gao & Jun Ma & Zhihui Jiao & Jianhua Xiao & Hongbin Wang, 2018. "Influence of Host and Environmental Factors on the Distribution of the Japanese Encephalitis Vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, August.
    5. Martin T. Dokulil & Elvira Eyto & Stephen C. Maberly & Linda May & Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & R. Iestyn Woolway, 2021. "Increasing maximum lake surface temperature under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Moreno-Amat, Elena & Mateo, Rubén G. & Nieto-Lugilde, Diego & Morueta-Holme, Naia & Svenning, Jens-Christian & García-Amorena, Ignacio, 2015. "Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 308-317.
    7. Aldo Rafael Martínez-Sifuentes & José Antonio Hernández-Herrera & Luis Manuel Valenzuela-Núñez & Edwin Amir Briceño-Contreras & Ulises Manzanilla-Quiñones & Argel Gastélum-Arellánez & Ramón Trucíos-Ca, 2022. "Climate Change Impact on the Habitat Suitability of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco in Mexico: An Approach for Its Conservation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Herkt, K. Matthias B. & Barnikel, Günter & Skidmore, Andrew K. & Fahr, Jakob, 2016. "A high-resolution model of bat diversity and endemism for continental Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 9-28.
    9. Wan, Nian-Feng & Jiang, Jie-Xian & Li, Bo, 2014. "Modeling ecological two-sidedness for complex ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 287(C), pages 36-43.
    10. Sutton, G.F. & Martin, G.D., 2022. "Testing MaxEnt model performance in a novel geographic region using an intentionally introduced insect," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    11. Worthington, Thomas A. & Zhang, Tianjiao & Logue, Daniel R. & Mittelstet, Aaron R. & Brewer, Shannon K., 2016. "Landscape and flow metrics affecting the distribution of a federally-threatened fish: Improving management, model fit, and model transferability," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 342(C), pages 1-18.
    12. An Cao & Xueyi Shi, 2022. "The Effects of Climate Change on Habitat Connectivity: A Case Study of the Brown-Eared Pheasant in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, May.
    13. Marianna V. P. Simões & Hanieh Saeedi & Marlon E. Cobos & Angelika Brandt, 2021. "Environmental matching reveals non-uniform range-shift patterns in benthic marine Crustacea," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-20, October.
    14. Cesar A Marchioro, 2016. "Global Potential Distribution of Bactrocera carambolae and the Risks for Fruit Production in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    15. Xihui Gu & Zaiming Jiang & Yansong Guan & Ming Luo & Jianfeng Li & Lunche Wang & Xiang Zhang & Dongdong Kong & Liangyi Wang, 2025. "Frequent land-ocean transboundary migration of tropical heatwaves under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Ayse Gul Sarikaya & Almira Uzun, 2024. "Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on the Current and Future Potential Distribution of Berberis vulgaris L. with Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, February.
    17. Pecchi, Matteo & Marchi, Maurizio & Burton, Vanessa & Giannetti, Francesca & Moriondo, Marco & Bernetti, Iacopo & Bindi, Marco & Chirici, Gherardo, 2019. "Species distribution modelling to support forest management. A literature review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    18. Jan Altman & Kerstin Treydte & Vit Pejcha & Tomas Cerny & Petr Petrik & Miroslav Srutek & Jong-Suk Song & Valerie Trouet & Jiri Dolezal, 2020. "Tree growth response to recent warming of two endemic species in Northeast Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1345-1364, October.
    19. Fuwan Gan & Yang Gao & Zheng Wei, 2025. "Changes in the summer seasonal cycle of lakes in the Inner Tibetan Plateau since the 21st century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-24, April.
    20. R. Iestyn Woolway & Yan Tong & Lian Feng & Gang Zhao & Dieu Anh Dinh & Haoran Shi & Yunlin Zhang & Kun Shi, 2024. "Multivariate extremes in lakes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0309367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.