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Estimating the incidence of Venezuelan migration and other socioeconomic factors on urban growth in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Blas Tupac Silva Barbosa
  • Andrés Peña-Galindo
  • Andrés Miguel Sampayo
  • Sebastian Londoño-Méndez
  • Ivan Enrique Contreras Cala
  • David Granada Donato
  • Jenny Rocío Beltrán Pérez
  • Alejandro Feged-Rivadeneira

Abstract

This study investigates the intricate relationship between Venezuelan migration and urban growth in Colombia from 2018 to 2021. The study employs remote sensing data and social network metrics to uncover migration patterns and their impact on urban expansion. The methodology consists of three stages. Firstly, nighttime satellite imagery is used to analyze year-over-year urban growth in Colombia. Secondly, social network data estimates Venezuelan migration, overcoming challenges of underreporting and informal border crossings. Lastly, an econometric analysis explores the quantitative link between Venezuelan migration and urban growth, integrating socioeconomic variables to address endogeneity. The findings reveal the complex interplay of Venezuelan migration, socioeconomic factors, and urban growth. The study outlines remote sensing analysis, introducing the Anthropogenic Footprint Expansion Index (AFEI) to quantify urban growth. Facebook API data estimates migration trends and explores socioeconomic impacts on urban expansion. The analysis uncovers migration, poverty, aging, and urban population proportion as key factors affecting Colombia’s urban landscape. Furthermore, the research underscores how Venezuelan migration affected short-term urban expansion pre- and post-COVID-19. Migration had a notable effect before the pandemic, but this influence waned afterward. The study highlights migration’s short-term nature and emphasizes age demographics’ role in medium-term dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Blas Tupac Silva Barbosa & Andrés Peña-Galindo & Andrés Miguel Sampayo & Sebastian Londoño-Méndez & Ivan Enrique Contreras Cala & David Granada Donato & Jenny Rocío Beltrán Pérez & Alejandro Feg, 2024. "Estimating the incidence of Venezuelan migration and other socioeconomic factors on urban growth in Colombia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(4), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0301552
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Sergio Olivieri & Francesc Ortega & Ana Rivadeneira & Eliana Carranza, 2022. "The Labour Market Effects of Venezuelan Migration in Ecuador," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 713-729, April.
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    4. Fatehkia, Masoomali & Kashyap, Ridhi & Weber, Ingmar, 2018. "Using Facebook ad data to track the global digital gender gap," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 189-209.
    5. Gamso, Jonas & Yuldashev, Farhod, 2018. "Does rural development aid reduce international migration?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 268-282.
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