Understanding the factors that affect households’ investment decisions required by the energy transition

In energy systems’ economic models, people’s behaviour is often underestimated, and they are generally unaware of how habits impact energy efficiency. Improving efficiency is challenging, and recommendations alone may not be sufficient. Changing behaviour requires understanding the direct impact of needs and habits on energy efficiency. This research introduces a methodology that retrieves human expert knowledge from four key aspects of the current energy transition: everyday appliances, buildings, mobility, flexibility, and energy efficiency. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and human behaviour, gaining a deeper understanding of the links among the factors that drive final energy consumers to change habits through the adoption of energy-saving measures. Working in collaboration with expert panels, this study provides a methodology for extracting expert human knowledge based on a set of future energy transition scenarios aligned with the achievement of the Paris Agreement, a taxonomy of 32 factors that have a strong influence on households’ investment decisions, and the results of a survey that characterises the European population through the 32-factor taxonomy and some socioeconomic conditions. In addition, the survey included a sample of the Latin American population to analyse how socioeconomic conditions (region, education, gender, etc.) influence the prioritisation of these factors. We discuss the high priority given to competence and autonomy over financial factors by inhabitants of the European Union residential sector. We provide an analysis of the factors through which other similar projects are focused and on which we converge. In addition, we contribute by presenting the hierarchy of priorities assigned by people. This highlights the importance for policymakers to take these aspects seriously when implementing energy policy interventions that go beyond purely financial measures and fiscal incentives.