Media coverage, fake news, and the diffusion of xenophobic violence: A fine-grained county-level analysis of the geographic and temporal patterns of arson attacks during the German refugee crisis 2015–2017

Over the year of 2015, about 800.000 refugees arrived in Germany, a number which equals around one percent of the total population. This migration process was labelled the refugee crisis and was accompanied by a contested debate. On the one hand, there was a widespread willingness to voluntarily help arriving refugees, on the other hand, the number of xenophobic attacks against refugees drastically increased. Our paper will focus on a specific form of xenophobic violence with a strong symbolic meaning: We analyze how arson attacks against collective accommodation facilities spread. Using a comprehensive web chronicle, we collected temporal and spatial data about arson attacks perpetrated on accommodations or facilities for refugees in Germany between 2015 and 2017. We counted 251 attacks, assigned each incident location to its county, merged county characteristics such as population size, proportion of foreigners, right-wing party support, and—going beyond previous research—added geographically coded media data from two digital archives. Besides newspaper contents of a popular nation-wide tabloid, we use a data base that covers local fake news on refugees. Based on these data, we constructed a balanced panel data set with the counties as geographical units and periods of 14 days as the time dimension. Results indicate that social contagion drives the diffusion process of arson attacks. Spatial proximity of previous attacks increased the propensity of attacks in the neighboring counties. Attacks were more likely to occur in counties with larger populations and fewer foreigners. While local newspaper coverage did not impact the diffusion of xenophobic attacks, fake news were relevant–but only in East Germany. We also considered two particularly salient threatening events that received nation-wide media attention, namely Merkel’s “border opening” on the 5th of September 2015 and the sexual assaults occurring during New Year’s 2015/16 in Cologne. Both were followed by temporary increases in violence.