IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0283969.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Memory load of information encoded amplifies the magnitude of hindsight bias

Author

Listed:
  • Kosuke Kaida
  • Naoko Kaida

Abstract

Our recollections tend to become more similar to the correct information when we recollect an initial response using the correct information, known as the hindsight bias. This study investigated the effect of memory load of information encoded on the hindsight bias’s magnitude. We assigned participants (N = 63) to either LOW or HIGH conditions, in which they answered 20 or 50 questions, which were their initial responses. Then, they memorized and remembered the correct information. They finally recollected the initial responses. Twenty of the fifty questions in the HIGH condition were identical to those in the LOW condition. We used the answers to these 20 common questions in LOW and HIGH conditions to examine the effect of the memory load of information encoded, defined as the number of correct answers to remember (i.e., 20 or 50) on the hindsight bias. Results indicated that the magnitude of the hindsight bias was more prominent in the HIGH than the LOW condition, suggesting that the memory load amplifies the hindsight bias’s magnitude. This finding also implies that controlling the memory load of information encoded when learning correct information could mitigate the hindsight bias. We expect these findings to have practical implications in occupational settings where hindsight bias could lead to critical errors such as financial losses or medical problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Kosuke Kaida & Naoko Kaida, 2023. "Memory load of information encoded amplifies the magnitude of hindsight bias," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-10, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0283969
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0283969
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0283969&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0283969?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruno Biais & Martin Weber, 2009. "Hindsight Bias, Risk Perception, and Investment Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(6), pages 1018-1029, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Danz & Dorothea Kübler & Lydia Mechtenberg & Julia Schmid, 2015. "On the Failure of Hindsight-Biased Principals to Delegate Optimally," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(8), pages 1938-1958, August.
    2. Volker Thoma & Elliott White & Asha Panigrahi & Vanessa Strowger & Irina Anderson, 2015. "Good Thinking or Gut Feeling? Cognitive Reflection and Intuition in Traders, Bankers and Financial Non-Experts," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. K.S. Muehlfeld & G.U. Weitzel & A. van Witteloostuijn, 2012. "Fight or freeze? Individual differences in investors’ motivational systems and trading in experimental asset markets," Working Papers 12-18, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Cheng, Ing-Haw & Hsiaw, Alice, 2022. "Distrust in experts and the origins of disagreement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. repec:cep:stitep:566 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2013. "Do statistical forecasting models for SKU-level data benefit from including past expert knowledge?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-87.
    8. Blondiau, Yuliya & Reuter, Emmanuelle, 2019. "Why is the grass greener on the other side? Decision modes and location choice by wind energy investors," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 44-55.
    9. Marco Serena, 2017. "A Belief-based Theory for Private Information Games," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2018-12, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    10. Alexis Direr, 2013. "Are betting markets efficient? Evidence from European Football Championships," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 343-356, January.
    11. Paritosh Chandra Sinha, 2023. "Attention to the Fads and Fashions in the Indian Stock Markets During COVID-19," Vision, , vol. 27(2), pages 202-224, April.
    12. Ibtissem Baklouti, 2014. "A Psychological Approach To Microfinance Credit Scoring Via A Classification And Regression Tree," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 193-208, October.
    13. Robin M. Hogarth & Natalia Karelaia, 2012. "Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgment," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(6), pages 1733-1747, December.
    14. Danz, David, 2020. "Never underestimate your opponent: Hindsight bias causes overplacement and overentry into competition," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 588-603.
    15. Egan, Daniel & Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2014. "Second-order beliefs and the individual investor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 652-666.
    16. Anderson, Irina & Thoma, Volker, 2021. "The edge of reason: A thematic analysis of how professional financial traders understand analytical decision making," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 304-314.
    17. Bhagwat, Vineet & Shirley, Sara E. & Stark, Jeffrey R., 2024. "Task-oriented speech and information processing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Swee-Hoon Chuah & Robert Hoffmann & Jeremy Larner, 2019. "Is knowledge curse or blessing in pure coordination problems?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 123-146, July.
    19. Kevin Lee & Scott Miller & Nicole Velasquez & Christi Wann, 2013. "The Effect of Investor Bias and Gender on Portfolio Performance and Risk," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16.
    20. Sanjit Dhami & Ali al-Nowaihi & Cass R. Sunstein, 2019. "Heuristics and Public Policy: Decision-making Under Bounded Rationality," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 7(1), pages 7-58, June.
    21. Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "Herding behaviour in P2P lending markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 27-41.
    22. Syed Aliya Zahera & Rohit Bansal, 2018. "Do investors exhibit behavioral biases in investment decision making? A systematic review," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 210-251, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0283969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.