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Additional risk of diabetes exceeds the increased risk of cancer caused by radiation exposure after the Fukushima disaster

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  • Michio Murakami
  • Masaharu Tsubokura
  • Kyoko Ono
  • Shuhei Nomura
  • Tomoyoshi Oikawa

Abstract

The 2011 Fukushima disaster led to increases in multiple risks (e.g., lifestyle diseases and radiation exposure) and fear among the public. Here, we assessed the additional risks of cancer caused by radiation and diabetes related to the disaster and the cost-effectiveness of countermeasures against these conditions. Our study included residents of the cities of Minamisoma and Soma (10–40 km and 35–50 km north of the Fukushima Daiichi (N° 1) Nuclear Power Station, respectively). We used the loss of life expectancy (LLE) as an indicator to compare risks between radiation exposure and diabetes. We also estimated the cost-effectiveness of radiation-related countermeasures, including restricted food distribution, decontamination, and whole-body counter tests and interventions. Metformin therapy was selected as a representative management for diabetes. The diabetes-related LLEs among residents were 4.1 (95% confidence interval: 1.4–6.8) ×10−2 years for the whole population and 8.0 (2.7–13.2) ×10−2 years for 40s to 70s in a scenario that considered the additional incidence of diabetes during the first 10 years. The cancer-related LLEs caused by lifetime exposure to radiation were 0.69 (2.5–97.5 percentile: 0.61–0.79) ×10−2 years for the whole population and 0.24 (0.20–0.29) ×10−2 years for 40s to 70s. The diabetes-related LLEs among residents in the above-mentioned scenario were 5.9-fold and 33-fold higher than those attributed to average radiation among the whole population and among the 40s to 70s age groups, respectively. The costs per life-years saved of the radiation countermeasures (i.e., restricted food distribution, decontamination, and whole-body counter tests and interventions) were >1 to >4 orders of magnitude higher than those of general heath checkups and conventional management for diabetes. Our findings indicate that countermeasures to mitigate diabetes are warranted. Policy-makers’ and individuals’ understanding of multiple risks after any disaster will be essential to saving the lives of victims.

Suggested Citation

  • Michio Murakami & Masaharu Tsubokura & Kyoko Ono & Shuhei Nomura & Tomoyoshi Oikawa, 2017. "Additional risk of diabetes exceeds the increased risk of cancer caused by radiation exposure after the Fukushima disaster," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-14, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0185259
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185259
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    1. Sae Ochi & Michio Murakami & Toshihiko Hasegawa & Yoshinori Komagata, 2021. "Prevention and Control of COVID-19 in Imperfect Condition: Practical Guidelines for Nursing Homes by Japan Environment and Health Safety Organization (JEHSO)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-12, September.
    2. Makoto Hasegawa & Michio Murakami & Yoshitake Takebayashi & Satoshi Suzuki & Hitoshi Ohto, 2018. "Social Capital Enhanced Disaster Preparedness and Health Consultations after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Nuclear Power Station Accident," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, March.
    3. Akiko Sato & Yuliya Lyamzina, 2018. "Diversity of Concerns in Recovery after a Nuclear Accident: A Perspective from Fukushima," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Michio Murakami & Takao Nirasawa & Takao Yoshikane & Keisuke Sueki & Kimikazu Sasa & Kei Yoshimura, 2018. "Estimation of Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Effectiveness of Regulation after the Fukushima Accident and in Virtual Nuclear Power Plant Accident Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-11, July.
    5. Michio Murakami & Yoshitake Takebayashi & Yoshihito Takeda & Akiko Sato & Yasumasa Igarashi & Kazumi Sano & Tetsuo Yasutaka & Wataru Naito & Sumire Hirota & Aya Goto & Tetsuya Ohira & Seiji Yasumura &, 2018. "Effect of Radiological Countermeasures on Subjective Well-Being and Radiation Anxiety after the 2011 Disaster: The Fukushima Health Management Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, January.

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