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The Assessment of Science: The Relative Merits of Post-Publication Review, the Impact Factor, and the Number of Citations

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  • Adam Eyre-Walker
  • Nina Stoletzki

Abstract

: Because both subjective post-publication review and the number of citations are highly error prone and biased measures of merit of scientific papers, journal-based metrics may be a better surrogate. The assessment of scientific publications is an integral part of the scientific process. Here we investigate three methods of assessing the merit of a scientific paper: subjective post-publication peer review, the number of citations gained by a paper, and the impact factor of the journal in which the article was published. We investigate these methods using two datasets in which subjective post-publication assessments of scientific publications have been made by experts. We find that there are moderate, but statistically significant, correlations between assessor scores, when two assessors have rated the same paper, and between assessor score and the number of citations a paper accrues. However, we show that assessor score depends strongly on the journal in which the paper is published, and that assessors tend to over-rate papers published in journals with high impact factors. If we control for this bias, we find that the correlation between assessor scores and between assessor score and the number of citations is weak, suggesting that scientists have little ability to judge either the intrinsic merit of a paper or its likely impact. We also show that the number of citations a paper receives is an extremely error-prone measure of scientific merit. Finally, we argue that the impact factor is likely to be a poor measure of merit, since it depends on subjective assessment. We conclude that the three measures of scientific merit considered here are poor; in particular subjective assessments are an error-prone, biased, and expensive method by which to assess merit. We argue that the impact factor may be the most satisfactory of the methods we have considered, since it is a form of pre-publication review. However, we emphasise that it is likely to be a very error-prone measure of merit that is qualitative, not quantitative.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Eyre-Walker & Nina Stoletzki, 2013. "The Assessment of Science: The Relative Merits of Post-Publication Review, the Impact Factor, and the Number of Citations," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-8, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pbio00:1001675
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1001675
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    2. Alberto Anfossi & Alberto Ciolfi & Filippo Costa & Giorgio Parisi & Sergio Benedetto, 2016. "Large-scale assessment of research outputs through a weighted combination of bibliometric indicators," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(2), pages 671-683, May.
    3. Svetla Baykoucheva, 2019. "Eugene Garfield’s Ideas and Legacy and Their Impact on the Culture of Research," Publications, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12, June.
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    5. Lourens H Swanepoel & Corrie M Swanepoel & Peter R Brown & Seth J Eiseb & Steven M Goodman & Mark Keith & Frikkie Kirsten & Herwig Leirs & Themb’alilahlwa A M Mahlaba & Rhodes H Makundi & Phanuel Male, 2017. "A systematic review of rodent pest research in Afro-Malagasy small-holder farming systems: Are we asking the right questions?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Johann Brunner, 2013. "Finanzierungsmodelle der Universitäten aus volkswirtschaftlicher Sicht," Economics working papers 2013-27, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    7. Mojisola Erdt & Aarthy Nagarajan & Sei-Ching Joanna Sin & Yin-Leng Theng, 2016. "Altmetrics: an analysis of the state-of-the-art in measuring research impact on social media," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 109(2), pages 1117-1166, November.
    8. Bianchi, Federico & García-Costa, Daniel & Grimaldo, Francisco & Squazzoni, Flaminio, 2022. "Measuring the effect of reviewers on manuscript change: A study on a sample of submissions to Royal Society journals (2006–2017)," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3).
    9. Dag W. Aksnes & Liv Langfeldt & Paul Wouters, 2019. "Citations, Citation Indicators, and Research Quality: An Overview of Basic Concepts and Theories," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440198, February.
    10. Bernhard Knapp & Rémi Bardenet & Miguel O Bernabeu & Rafel Bordas & Maria Bruna & Ben Calderhead & Jonathan Cooper & Alexander G Fletcher & Derek Groen & Bram Kuijper & Joanna Lewis & Greg McInerny & , 2015. "Ten Simple Rules for a Successful Cross-Disciplinary Collaboration," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-7, April.
    11. Kenneth Zahringer & Christos Kolympiris & Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes, 2017. "Academic knowledge quality differentials and the quality of firm innovation," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 26(5), pages 821-844.
    12. Abderahman Rejeb & John G. Keogh & Wayne Martindale & Damion Dooley & Edward Smart & Steven Simske & Samuel Fosso Wamba & John G. Breslin & Kosala Yapa Bandara & Subhasis Thakur & Kelly Liu & Bridgett, 2022. "Charting Past, Present, and Future Research in the Semantic Web and Interoperability," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, May.
    13. Groen-Xu, Moqi & Bös, Gregor & Teixeira, Pedro A. & Voigt, Thomas & Knapp, Bernhard, 2023. "Short-term incentives of research evaluations: Evidence from the UK Research Excellence Framework," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(6).
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    15. Donna K Ginther & Jodi Basner & Unni Jensen & Joshua Schnell & Raynard Kington & Walter T Schaffer, 2018. "Publications as predictors of racial and ethnic differences in NIH research awards," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-24, November.

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