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The Supply and Demand for Exports of Pakistan: The Polynomial Distributed Lag Model (PDL) Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Zeshan Atique

    (Shaheed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology, Karachi and University of Karachi, Karachi.)

  • Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad

    (Applied Economics Research Centre, University of Karachi, Karachi.)

Abstract

In the global economy, the performance of any country will greatly depend on the performance of its exports. The trade performance determines the prospects of change. It helps countries win friends, and break the traditional mould of isolation and indifference. The performance of exports of countries depends on various price and non-price factors. In international trade transactions it is important to recognise that these transactions require some amount of time that occurs between the decision to buy and actual delivery of the product from foreign country. In the Econometric modelling lag occupies a central role. It is recognised that due to psychological, technical and institutional reasons, a dependent variable may respond to explanatory variables with lapse of time, in particular when dealing with time-series trade models. A number of studies have been conducted to examine the export performance of Pakistan. In the best of our knowledge, no study has been undertaken incorporating lags to examine the individual and cumulative impact of determinants of export performance of Pakistan. Thus, the ultimate purpose of this paper is to estimate consistent individual (short run) and cumulative (long run) elasticities of both export demand and supply determinants using annual data over the period 1972–2000 by applying Almon approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeshan Atique & Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad, 2003. "The Supply and Demand for Exports of Pakistan: The Polynomial Distributed Lag Model (PDL) Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 961-972.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:42:y:2003:i:4:p:961-972
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 2, pages 83-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. M. Aynul Hasan & Ashfaque H. Khan, 1994. "Impact of Devaluation on Pakistan's External Trade: An Econometric Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1205-1215.
    5. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew McCartney, 2015. "The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 59-86, September.
    2. Mahmood, Asif & Zahoor, Muhammad Awais, 2021. "Role of Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate: An Empirical Examination in case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 115958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
    4. Sadia Bader, 2006. "Determining Import Intensity of Exports for Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 15, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Rabia Latif & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2016. "The Determinants of Pakistan Exports of Textile: An Integrated Demand and Supply Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 191-210.
    6. Asif Idrees Agha & Muhammad Saleem Khan, 2006. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Imbalances and Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 343-362..

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