IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v9y2022i1d10.1057_s41599-022-01437-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Social vulnerability amplifies the disparate impact of mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility across the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Bo Huang

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong
    The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Zhihui Huang

    (Southwest Jiao Tong University)

  • Chen Chen

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Jian Lin

    (University of California Merced)

  • Tony Tam

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Yingyi Hong

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Sen Pei

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Although human mobility is considered critical for the spread of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) both locally and globally, the extent to which such an association is impacted by social vulnerability remains unclear. Here, using multisource epidemiological and socioeconomic data of US counties, we develop a COVID-19 pandemic vulnerability index (CPVI) to quantify their levels of social vulnerability and examine how social vulnerability moderated the influence of mobility on disease transmissibility (represented by the effective reproduction number, Rt) during the US summer epidemic wave of 2020. We find that counties in the top CPVI quintile suffered almost double in regard to COVID-19 transmission (45.02% days with an Rt higher than 1) from mobility, particularly intracounty mobility, compared to counties in the lowest quintile (21.90%). In contrast, counties in the bottom CPVI quintile were only slightly affected by the level of mobility. As such, a 25% intracounty mobility change was associated with a 15.28% Rt change for counties in the top CPVI quintile, which is eight times the 1.81% Rt change for those in the lowest quintile. These findings suggest the need to account for the vulnerability of communities when making social distancing measures against mobility in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo Huang & Zhihui Huang & Chen Chen & Jian Lin & Tony Tam & Yingyi Hong & Sen Pei, 2022. "Social vulnerability amplifies the disparate impact of mobility on COVID-19 transmissibility across the United States," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:9:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-022-01437-5
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-022-01437-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-022-01437-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-022-01437-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. Giovanni Bonaccorsi & Francesco Pierri & Matteo Cinelli & Andrea Flori & Alessandro Galeazzi & Francesco Porcelli & Ana Lucia Schmidt & Carlo Michele Valensise & Antonio Scala & Walter Quattrociocchi , 2020. "Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under COVID-19," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(27), pages 15530-15535, July.
    3. Serina Chang & Emma Pierson & Pang Wei Koh & Jaline Gerardin & Beth Redbird & David Grusky & Jure Leskovec, 2021. "Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7840), pages 82-87, January.
    4. Xiao Hou & Song Gao & Qin Li & Yuhao Kang & Nan Chen & Kaiping Chen & Jinmeng Rao & Jordan S. Ellenberg & Jonathan A. Patz, 2021. "Intracounty modeling of COVID-19 infection with human mobility: Assessing spatial heterogeneity with business traffic, age, and race," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(24), pages 2020524118-, June.
    5. Seth E. Spielman & Joseph Tuccillo & David C. Folch & Amy Schweikert & Rebecca Davies & Nathan Wood & Eric Tate, 2020. "Evaluating social vulnerability indicators: criteria and their application to the Social Vulnerability Index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(1), pages 417-436, January.
    6. Flávio C Coelho & Raquel M Lana & Oswaldo G Cruz & Daniel A M Villela & Leonardo S Bastos & Ana Pastore y Piontti & Jessica T Davis & Alessandro Vespignani & Claudia T Codeço & Marcelo F C Gomes, 2020. "Assessing the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, morbidity and social vulnerability," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-11, September.
    7. Bennett, Magdalena, 2021. "All things equal? Heterogeneity in policy effectiveness against COVID-19 spread in chile," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Pierre Nouvellet & Sangeeta Bhatia & Anne Cori & Kylie E. C. Ainslie & Marc Baguelin & Samir Bhatt & Adhiratha Boonyasiri & Nicholas F. Brazeau & Lorenzo Cattarino & Laura V. Cooper & Helen Coupland &, 2021. "Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Luís M A Bettencourt & Ruy M Ribeiro, 2008. "Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(5), pages 1-9, May.
    10. Nicolò Gozzi & Michele Tizzoni & Matteo Chinazzi & Leo Ferres & Alessandro Vespignani & Nicola Perra, 2021. "Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    11. Caroline Buckee & Abdisalan Noor & Lisa Sattenspiel, 2021. "Thinking clearly about social aspects of infectious disease transmission," Nature, Nature, vol. 595(7866), pages 205-213, July.
    12. Jonathan Jay & Jacob Bor & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Sarah K. Lipson & David K. Jones & Sandro Galea & Julia Raifman, 2020. "Neighbourhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1294-1302, December.
    13. Bo Huang & Jionghua Wang & Jixuan Cai & Shiqi Yao & Paul Kay Sheung Chan & Tony Hong-wing Tam & Ying-Yi Hong & Corrine W. Ruktanonchai & Alessandra Carioli & Jessica R. Floyd & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & , 2021. "Integrated vaccination and physical distancing interventions to prevent future COVID-19 waves in Chinese cities," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 695-705, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michele Tizzoni & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Laetitia Gauvin & Márton Karsai & Nicola Perra & Shweta Bansal, 2022. "Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Lili Li & Araz Taeihagh & Si Ying Tan, 2023. "A scoping review of the impacts of COVID-19 physical distancing measures on vulnerable population groups," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Adriana Manna & Júlia Koltai & Márton Karsai, 2024. "Importance of social inequalities to contact patterns, vaccine uptake, and epidemic dynamics," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Nicolò Gozzi & Matteo Chinazzi & Natalie E. Dean & Ira M. Longini Jr & M. Elizabeth Halloran & Nicola Perra & Alessandro Vespignani, 2023. "Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Lorenzo Amir Nemati Fard & Michele Starnini & Michele Tizzoni, 2023. "Modeling adaptive forward-looking behavior in epidemics on networks," Papers 2301.04947, arXiv.org.
    7. Zihao Yang & Ramayya Krishnan & Beibei Li, 2024. "The Interplay Between Individual Mobility, Health Risk, and Economic Choice: A Holistic Model for COVID-19 Policy Intervention," INFORMS Joural on Data Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 6-27, April.
    8. Lucia Freira & Marco Sartorio & Cynthia Boruchowicz & Florencia Lopez Boo & Joaquin Navajas, 2021. "The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Kuzmanic, Danilo & Valenzuela, Juan Pablo & Claro, Susana & Canales, Andrea & Cerda, Daniela & Undurraga, Eduardo A., 2023. "Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Mingke Xie & Yang Chen & Luliang Tang, 2022. "Exploring the Impact of Localized COVID-19 Events on Intercity Mobility during the Normalized Prevention and Control Period in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Lin Chen & Fengli Xu & Zhenyu Han & Kun Tang & Pan Hui & James Evans & Yong Li, 2022. "Strategic COVID-19 vaccine distribution can simultaneously elevate social utility and equity," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1503-1514, November.
    12. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    13. Liu, Qiyang & Liu, Zhengying & Kang, Tingting & Zhu, Le & Zhao, Pengjun, 2022. "Transport inequities through the lens of environmental racism: Rural-urban migrants under Covid-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 26-38.
    14. Li, Meng-Hao & Haynes, Kingsley & Kulkarni, Rajendra & Siddique, Abu Bakkar, 2022. "Determinants of voluntary compliance: COVID-19 mitigation," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    15. Liu, Shasha & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki, 2022. "Role of stay-at-home requests and travel restrictions in preventing the spread of COVID-19 in Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Bedoya-Maya, Felipe & Calatayud, Agustina & Giraldez, Francisca & Sánchez González, Santiago, 2022. "Urban mobility patterns and the spatial distribution of infections in Santiago de Chile," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 43-54.
    17. Liang, Zhenglin & Jiang, Chen & Sun, Muxia & Xue, Zongqi & Li, Yan-Fu, 2023. "Resilience analysis for confronting the spreading risk of contagious diseases," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    18. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    19. Mauricio Herrera & Alex Godoy-Faúndez, 2021. "Exploring the Roles of Local Mobility Patterns, Socioeconomic Conditions, and Lockdown Policies in Shaping the Patterns of COVID-19 Spread," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-24, April.
    20. Galanis, Giorgos & Georgiadis, Andreas, 2024. "Socioeconomic conditions and contagion dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic with and without mitigation measures: Evidence from 185 countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:9:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-022-01437-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.