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Fertility Policies and Social Security Reforms in China

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Coeurdacier
  • Stéphane Guibaud
  • Keyu Jin

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of relaxing fertility controls and expanding social security in China. We develop an overlapping generations model in which fertility decisions and capital accumulation are endogenously determined in the presence of social security. In our model, children are an alternative savings technology—as they transfer resources to their retired parents. Important feedback links arise between fertility and social security variables: an expansion of social security benefits reduces fertility—partially offsetting the effects of relaxing the one-child policy. The feedback loop between social security variables and fertility suggests that abandoning fertility restrictions may not be as effective in helping to finance China’s intended pension reform, especially if children are an important source of old-age support. The sustainability of the pension system is particularly at risk in the event of a growth slowdown. The objective of pension reforms may also be incongruent with other reforms, such as financial liberalization and financial integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2014. "Fertility Policies and Social Security Reforms in China," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(3), pages 371-408, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:62:y:2014:i:3:p:371-408
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    2. Yangming Hu & Yingjun Wu & Wei Zhou & Tao Li & Liqing Li, 2020. "A three-stage DEA-based efficiency evaluation of social security expenditure in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, February.
    3. Gao, Han & Lu, Bei, 2025. "Reforming China’s public pension system: Fiscal sustainability and the challenge of formality-based inequality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Zeng, Miao & Du, Jiang & Zhu, Xiaoyu & Deng, Xin, 2023. "Does internet use drive rural household savings? Evidence from 7825 farmer households in rural China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    5. Guoqing Shi & Qiulong LYU & Ziheng Shangguan & Tianhe Jiang, 2019. "Facing Climate Change: What Drives Internal Migration Decisions in the Karst Rocky Regions of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Thomas Davoine, 2023. "The joint macroeconomic impacts of capital markets integration and fertility," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 687-720, May.
    7. de Silva, Tiloka & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2017. "The large fall in global fertility: A quantitative model," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Huan Wang & Jianyuan Huang & Shuangyue Sun, 2019. "Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan: Does the Demographic Policy Reform Matter?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Thomas Davoine, 2026. "Cross‐country differences in the long‐run economic impacts of increased fertility," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 128(1), pages 104-151, January.
    10. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," Working Papers 2022-012, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    11. Liqing Li & He Jiang, 2022. "Development of Fertility, Social Status, and Social Trust of Farmers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-31, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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