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Actuarial Fairness When Longevity Increases: An Evaluation of the Italian Pension System

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  • Michele Belloni

    () (Department of Economics, University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, San Giobbe 873, Venice 30121, Italy.)

  • Carlo Maccheroni

    (Department of Statistics and Mathematics, University of Turin, Turin, Italy)

Abstract

This study analyses the actuarial characteristics of the Italian pension system throughout its transition from defined benefit (DB) to notional defined contribution (NDC) rules, taking into account expected increasing longevity. Computations rely on ad hoc projected cohort mortality tables based on a limit survival scenario depicted by demographic experts. Most workers retiring in the coming years, whose pension is partly computed according to DB rules, will receive more-than-actuarially fair pensions. However, the generosity of the pension system has been significantly reduced for them by a recent reform that tightened early retirement eligibility requirements. Disability benefits remain (extremely) generous when claimed before age (57) 60. Steady-state NDC pensions, due to dynamic efficiency, are less than actuarially fair. They further deviate from actuarial fairness due to the specific rules, based on historical mortality, adopted by the Italian law for computing and updating benefits while facing increasing longevity. Cohort mortality projections should be used to handle longevity changes in NDC schemes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Belloni & Carlo Maccheroni, 2013. "Actuarial Fairness When Longevity Increases: An Evaluation of the Italian Pension System," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 38(4), pages 638-674, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:gpprii:v:38:y:2013:i:4:p:638-674
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Belloni & Rob Alessie & Adriaan Kalwij & Chiara Marinacci, 2013. "Lifetime income and old age mortality risk in Italy over two decades," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(45), pages 1261-1298, December.
    2. Frank W. Heiland & Na Yin, 2014. "Have We Finally Achieved Actuarial Fairness of Social Security Retirement Benefits and Will It Last?," Working Papers wp307, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    3. Roberto Leombruni & Michele Mosca, 2011. "The lifetime gender gap in Italy. Do the pension system countervails labour market outcomes?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 113, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    4. repec:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:2:p:177-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. R. Melis & A. Trudda, 2014. "Mixed pension systems sustainability," Working Paper CRENoS 201413, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    6. Alonso-García, J. & Devolder, P., 2016. "Optimal mix between pay-as-you-go and funding for DC pension schemes in an overlapping generations model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 224-236.
    7. Leombruni Roberto & Mosca Michele, 2013. "The lifetime gender gap in Italy. Does the pension system countervail labour market outcomes?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201302, University of Turin.

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