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A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and Their Economic Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Estefania-Flores
  • Davide Furceri
  • Swarnali A Hannan
  • Jonathan D Ostry
  • Andrew K Rose

Abstract

This study develops a new Measure of Aggregate Trade Restrictions (MATR) using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. MATR is a measure of direct and indirect official government policy related to the international flow of goods and services. MATR is simple, plausible, quantitative, easily updated, based on relevant measures of trade policy and other international restrictions affecting trade (e.g., payment restrictions), and covers an unbalanced sample of up to 157 countries from 1949 to 2019. MATR is strongly correlated with, and—importantly—more comprehensive, in terms of country and time coverage, than existing measures of de jure openness; it is also granular. As such, MATR empowers empirical analysis to increase coverage in research related to trade restrictions and other trade-related openness policies. MATR is used in the study to show that direct and indirect restrictions to trade are associated with significant contractions in output.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Estefania-Flores & Davide Furceri & Swarnali A Hannan & Jonathan D Ostry & Andrew K Rose, 2025. "A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and Their Economic Effects," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 39(3), pages 684-710.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:39:y:2025:i:3:p:684-710.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhae033
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2025. "Effect of the Suspension from the African Growth and Opportunity Act Programme on Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa," EconStor Preprints 309194, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Timini, Jacopo, 2023. "Geopolitical fragmentation and trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1289-1315.
    4. Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Hannan, Swarnali A. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 2023. "Are trade restrictions counter-cyclical? Evidence from a new aggregate measure," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 745-767.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2024. "Trade Policy Space, Aid for Trade and, Intra-African and External African Manufactured Exports," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    6. Rose, A.K. & Rose, A.I.G., 2024. "A presence of absence: The benign emergence of monetary stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Koufopoulos, Dimitrios & Spanos, Konstantinos, 2025. "Conditional forecast for public debt and threshold effects: Evidence from South EU countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    8. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Estefania-Flores, Julia & Furceri, Davide & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Timini, Jacopo, 2024. "Revisiting the effects of exchange and capital restrictions on trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 763-778.
    9. Kym Anderson & Sundar Ponnusamy, 2022. "Structural transformation away from agriculture: What role for trade?," Departmental Working Papers 2022-04, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    10. Samuele Centorrino & Antonia Diakantoni & Alexander Keck & Michele Ruta & Monika Sztajerowska & Yuting Wei, 2025. "Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity," IMF Working Papers 2025/220, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2025. "Effect of the African Growth and Opportunity Act on the Structure of Public Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa," EconStor Preprints 309256, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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