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Revealing Downturns

Author

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  • Martin C Schmalz
  • Sergey Zhuk

Abstract

When Bayesian risk-averse investors are uncertain about their assets’ cash flows’ exposure to systematic risk, stock prices react to news more in downturns than in upturns, implying higher volatility in downturns and negatively skewed returns. In good times, less desirable assets with low average cash flows and high market risk perform similar to more desirable assets with high average cash flows and low market risk, rendering them difficult to distinguish. However, their performance diverges in downturns, enabling better inference. Consistent with these predictions, stocks’ reaction to earnings news is up to 70% stronger in downturns than in upturns. Received July 7, 2014; editorial decision March 20, 2018 by Editor Laura Starks. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin C Schmalz & Sergey Zhuk, 2019. "Revealing Downturns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 338-373.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:32:y:2019:i:1:p:338-373.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhy057
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    Cited by:

    1. Zheng Sun & Ashley W. Wang & Lu Zheng, 2016. "Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Gorovyy, Sergiy & Kelly, Patrick J. & Kuzmina, Olga, 2021. "Does secrecy signal skill? Own-investor secrecy and hedge fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Hirshleifer, David & Sheng, Jinfei, 2022. "Macro news and micro news: Complements or substitutes?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1006-1024.
    4. Kuzmina, Olga, 2020. "A model-free identification of relative risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Wang, Bo, 2022. "Ambiguity aversion and amplification of financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. David A. Maslar & Matthew Serfling & Sarah Shaikh, 2021. "Economic Downturns and the Informativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1520, September.
    7. Elyasiani, Elyas & Movaghari, Hadi, 2024. "Money demand function with time-varying coefficients," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Eisele, Alexander & Nefedova, Tamara & Parise, Gianpaolo & Peijnenburg, Kim, 2020. "Trading out of sight: An analysis of cross-trading in mutual fund families," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 359-378.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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