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Optimal Life Cycle Portfolio Choice with Housing Market Cycles

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  • Marcel Fischer
  • Michael Z. Stamos

Abstract

In recent decades U.S. households have experienced residential house prices moving persistently, that is, returns being positively serially correlated. We set up a realistically calibrated life cycle model with slow-moving time variation in expected housing returns, showing that not only age, labor income, and pre-existing housing wealth but also the state of the housing market significantly affect household decisions. Consistently with the data, the model predicts that in good states of housing market cycles (1) homeownership rates increase, (2) households buying homes invest a larger share of their net worth in their home, and (3) these households lever up more. The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com., Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Fischer & Michael Z. Stamos, 2013. "Optimal Life Cycle Portfolio Choice with Housing Market Cycles," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(9), pages 2311-2352.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:26:y:2013:i:9:p:2311-2352
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hht010
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    Cited by:

    1. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Wagner, Sebastian, 2015. "Housing habits and their implications for life-cycle consumption and investment," SAFE Working Paper Series 85, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    2. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Weiss, Farina, 2016. "Predictors and portfolios over the life cycle," SAFE Working Paper Series 139, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    3. Alexandra Spicer & Olena Stavrunova & Susan Thorp, 2016. "How Portfolios Evolve after Retirement: Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 241-267, June.
    4. Fischer, Marcel & Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2217-2240.
    5. repec:eee:jcecon:v:46:y:2018:i:1:p:212-247 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Corradin, Stefano & Fillat, Jose & Vergara-Alert, Carles, 2017. "Portfolio choice with house value misperception," Working Papers 17-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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