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Seasonally Varying Preferences: Theoretical Foundations for an Empirical Regularity

Author

Listed:
  • Mark J. Kamstra
  • Lisa A. Kramer
  • Maurice D. Levi
  • Tan Wang

Abstract

We investigate an asset pricing model with preferences cycling between high risk aversion and low EIS in fall/winter and the reverse in spring/summer. Calibrating to consumption data and allowing plausible preference parameter values, we produce returns that match observed equity and Treasury returns across the seasons: risky returns are higher and risk-free returns are lower or stable in fall/winter, and they reverse in spring/summer. Further, risky returns vary more than risk-free returns. A novel finding is that both EIS and risk aversion must vary seasonally to match observed returns. Further, the degree of necessary seasonal change in EIS is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi & Tan Wang, 2014. "Seasonally Varying Preferences: Theoretical Foundations for an Empirical Regularity," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 39-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:4:y:2014:i:1:p:39-77.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/rau002
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nisani, Doron & Eichel, Ron, 2022. "Irregularities in forward-looking volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 489-501.
    2. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2020. "Natural disasters and risk aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 818-835.
    3. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    4. Li, Fengyun & Zhang, Huacheng & Zheng, Dazhi, 2018. "Seasonality in the cross section of stock returns: Advanced markets versus emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 263-281.
    5. Liu, Huajin & Zhang, Wei & Zhang, Xiaotao & Liu, Jia, 2021. "Temperature and trading behaviours," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Guy Kaplanski & Haim Levy, 2017. "Seasonality in Perceived Risk: A Sentiment Effect," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
    7. Chiah, Mardy & Zhong, Angel, 2021. "Tuesday Blues and the day-of-the-week effect in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Kirk-Reeve, Samuel & Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "National air pollution and the cross-section of stock returns in China," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    9. Størdal, Ståle & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Lien, Gudbrand & Haugom, Erik, 2023. "Trading time seasonality in electricity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Berrada, Tony & Detemple, Jérôme & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2018. "Asset pricing with beliefs-dependent risk aversion and learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 504-534.
    11. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y., 2019. "How much happiness can we find in the U.S. fear Index?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 246-258.
    12. Finta, Marinela Adriana, 2021. "Japanese monetary policy and its impact on stock market implied volatility during pleasant and unpleasant weather," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Iyad SNUNU, 2024. "Mood Swings And The Firm Size Premium," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 165-176, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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