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Modelling the effects of an abolition of the EU sugar quota on internal prices, production and imports

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  • Stephan Nolte
  • Jeroen Buysse
  • Guido Van Huylenbroeck

Abstract

We apply a spatial price equilibrium model of the world sugar market to simulate an abolition of the European Union (EU) quota system in 2015/16. To overcome the normative nature of the approach, we calibrate the model by attaching a non-linear cost term to each trade flow. This is in some regards similar to positive mathematical programming. We suggest an economic interpretation and an econometric specification of the cost term. EU sugar production is simulated to increase from 13.3 to 15.5 million tons in case of quota abolition by 2019/20. Ten member states increase production, nine reduce it. Preferential imports are significantly reduced. Simulated effects are found to be more pronounced the higher the world market price. , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Nolte & Jeroen Buysse & Guido Van Huylenbroeck, 2012. "Modelling the effects of an abolition of the EU sugar quota on internal prices, production and imports," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 39(1), pages 75-94, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:75-94
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbr043
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    Cited by:

    1. Nolte, Stephan & Grethe, Harald, 2011. "Der Markt für Zucker," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61.
    2. Gohin, Alexandre & Zheng, Yu, 2020. "Reforming the European Common Agricultural Policy: From price & income support to risk management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 712-727.
    3. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Loss of preferential access to the protected EU sugar market: Fiji's response," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(3), pages 480-499, July.
    4. Kazi Abrar Hossain & Syed Abul Basher & A.K. Enamul Haque, 2018. "Quantifying the impact of Ramadan on global raw sugar prices," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(4), pages 510-528, June.
    5. Marlen Haß, 2022. "Liberalising the EU sugar market: what are the effects on third countries?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(3), pages 638-667, July.
    6. Gohin, Alexandre & Zheng, Yu, 2015. "Assessing the Market Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: Does Farmers’ Risk Attitude Matter?," 2015: Trade and Societal Well-Being, December 13-15, 2015, Clearwater Beach, Florida 229235, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    7. Nolte, Stephan & Grethe, Harald, 2012. "Der Markt für Zucker," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(Supplemen), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "International Agricultural Trade and Negotiations : Coping with a New Landscape [Commerce et négociations agricoles commerciales: s'ajuster au nouvel environnement]," Working Papers hal-01592099, HAL.
    9. Stefan Wimmer & Johannes Sauer, 2020. "Profitability Development and Resource Reallocation: The Case of Sugar Beet Farming in Germany," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 816-837, September.
    10. Burrell, Alison M. & Doorslaer, B. Van & Ciaian, Pavel & Salputra, G., 2013. "The impact of EU sugar quota removal on EU external trade in sugar: a bilateral perspective," 2013: Productivity and Its Impacts on Global Trade, June 2-4, 2013. Seville, Spain 152362, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. Baer-Nawrocka, Agnieszka & Kiryluk-Dryjska, Ewa & Mrówczyńska-Kamińska, Aldona, 2014. "Wpływ Zniesienia Systemu Kwotowania Na Produkcję Buraków Cukrowych I Cukru W Unii Europejskiej," Village and Agriculture (Wieś i Rolnictwo), Polish Academy of Sciences (IRWiR PAN), Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, vol. 1(162).
    12. Alexandre Gohin & Yu Zheng, 2016. "Assessing the Market Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy: Does Farmers' Risk Attitude Matter?," FOODSECURE Working papers 46, LEI Wageningen UR.
    13. Irena Benešová & Helena Řezbová & Luboš Smutka & Karel Tomšík & Adriana Laputková, 2015. "European Sugar Market - Impact of Quota System," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(6), pages 1825-1838.
    14. Haß, Marlen, 2016. "Der Zuckermarkt Im Wandel: Was Passiert Nach Dem Eu-Quotenende?," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 245190, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    15. Castillo-Valero, Juan S. & Sanchez-Garcia, Mercedes & Garcia-Cortijo, Mari Carmen, 2016. "Predicting grower choices in a regulated environment," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 20(1), November.

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