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Demographics, Productivity Growth and the Macroeconomic Equilibrium


  • Hu, Sheng-Cheng


This paper investigates the economic effects of demographics and productivity growth in an intertemporal optimizing model with age-based heterogeneity and induced retirement. The author's analysis reveals that the projected 'population aging' is likely to increase the growth rate of output and to improve the welfare of the economy, especially if there are no distortional policies that prevent retirement decisions from adjusting endogenously to the demographic changes. The economy also displays different patterns of dynamic adjustment in the quantity and price variables depending upon whether retirement is endogenous. Copyright 1995 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Sheng-Cheng, 1995. "Demographics, Productivity Growth and the Macroeconomic Equilibrium," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 592-610, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:33:y:1995:i:4:p:592-610

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lang, Kevin, 1989. "Why was there mandatory retirement?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 127-136, June.
    2. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1987. "The Causes and Consequences of the Dependence of Quality on Price," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Dickens, William T & Lundberg, Shelly J, 1993. "Hours Restrictions and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(1), pages 169-192, February.
    4. Bulow, Jeremy I & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy,Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages 376-414, July.
    5. Kahn, Shulamit & Lang, Kevin, 1991. "The Effect of Hours Constraints on Labor Supply Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 605-611, November.
    6. Levine, David I, 1991. "Just-Cause Employment Policies in the Presence of Worker Adverse Selection," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 294-305, July.
    7. Dickens, William T, et al, 1989. "Employee Crime and the Monitoring Puzzle," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 331-347, July.
    8. Levine, David I, 1989. "Just-Cause Employment Policies When Unemployment Is a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 902-905, September.
    9. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    10. Joseph G. Altonji & Christina H. Paxson, 1986. "Job Characteristics and Hours of Work," NBER Working Papers 1895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lazear, Edward P, 1981. "Agency, Earnings Profiles, Productivity, and Hours Restrictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 606-620, September.
    12. Goldin, Claudia, 1992. "Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History of American Women," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195072709.
    13. George A. Akerlof & Lawrence F. Katz, 1989. "Workers' Trust Funds and the Logic of Wage Profiles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 525-536.
    14. James B. Rebitzer & Lowell J. Taylor, 1991. "Work Incentives and the Demand for Primary and Contingent Labor," NBER Working Papers 3647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Shulamit B. Kahn & Kevin Lang, 1995. "The Causes of Hours Constraints: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(4a), pages 914-928, November.
    16. Shulamit Kahn & Kevin Lang, 1987. "Constraints on the Choice of Work Hours: Agency vs. Specific-Capital," NBER Working Papers 2238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Altonji, Joseph G & Paxson, Christina H, 1988. "Labor Supply Preferences, Hours Constraints, and Hours-Wage Trade-Offs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(2), pages 254-276, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zakir Husain & Mousumi Dutta & Nidhi Chowdhary, 2014. "Is Health Wealth? Results of a Panel Data Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 121-143, May.
    2. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2005. "Intergenerational transfers and demographic transition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 191-214, October.
    3. K Blackburn & H Issa, 2002. "Endogenous Life Expectancy in a Simple Model of Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 13, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    4. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen, 2001. "Longevity and economic growth in a dynastic family model with an annuity market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 269-277, August.
    5. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
    6. Hu, Sheng-Cheng, 1999. "Economic Growth in the Perpetual-Youth Model: Implications of the Annuity Market and Demographics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 107-124, January.
    7. Heijdra, Ben J. & Romp, Ward E., 2009. "Retirement, pensions, and ageing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 586-604, April.
    8. Echevarria, Cruz A., 2004. "Life expectancy, retirement and endogenous growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 147-174, January.

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