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Localized conformal prediction: a generalized inference framework for conformal prediction

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  • Leying Guan

Abstract

SummaryWe propose a new inference framework called localized conformal prediction. It generalizes the framework of conformal prediction by offering a single-test-sample adaptive construction that emphasizes a local region around this test sample, and can be combined with different conformal scores. The proposed framework enjoys an assumption-free finite sample marginal coverage guarantee, and it also offers additional local coverage guarantees under suitable assumptions. We demonstrate how to change from conformal prediction to localized conformal prediction using several conformal scores, and we illustrate a potential gain via numerical examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Leying Guan, 2023. "Localized conformal prediction: a generalized inference framework for conformal prediction," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 110(1), pages 33-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:110:y:2023:i:1:p:33-50.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/biomet/asac040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paindaveine, Davy & Siman, Miroslav, 2011. "On directional multiple-output quantile regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 193-212, February.
    2. Leying Guan & Robert Tibshirani, 2022. "Prediction and outlier detection in classification problems," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 524-546, April.
    3. Jing Lei & Larry Wasserman, 2014. "Distribution-free prediction bands for non-parametric regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, January.
    4. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wuthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2019. "Distributional conformal prediction," Papers 1909.07889, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    5. Jing Lei & Max G’Sell & Alessandro Rinaldo & Ryan J. Tibshirani & Larry Wasserman, 2018. "Distribution-Free Predictive Inference for Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(523), pages 1094-1111, July.
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    1. Paul, Joseph R. & Schaffer, Mark E., 2024. "An introduction to conformal inference for economists," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2024-13, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
    2. Hyun, Hyeong Jin & Wang, Xiao, 2025. "Neural Conformal Inference for jump diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    3. Mulubrhan G. Haile & Lingling Zhang & David J. Olive, 2024. "Predicting Random Walks and a Data-Splitting Prediction Region," Stats, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, January.

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