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Análisis del riesgo de mercado de los fondos de pensión en México Un enfoque con modelos autorregresivos

Author

Listed:
  • Martínez Preece Marissa R.

    (Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana)

  • Venegas Martínez Francisco

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the market risk of two types of investment funds, Basic SIEFORE 1 (SB1) and Basic SIEFORE 2 (SB2). To do this, we propose a performance index that will be used in ARIMA-GARCH models and some of its extensions, with the purpose of examining the dynamic behavior of the returns and their volatility on such investment funds. Moreover, the risk premium of both types of funds is analyzed. One of the relevant research results is that yields obtained by these funds in the period studied, are not sufficient to offset the additional risk assumed by the pension funds including equity components. Finally, some remarks are made, on investment policy, about the market risk and how it is being measured and managed in these funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez Preece Marissa R. & Venegas Martínez Francisco, 2014. "Análisis del riesgo de mercado de los fondos de pensión en México Un enfoque con modelos autorregresivos," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 59(3), pages 165-195, julio-sep.
    • Handle: RePEc:nax:conyad:v:59:y:2014:i:3:p:165-195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
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    5. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J. G. & Dowd, Kevin, 2001. "Pensionmetrics: stochastic pension plan design and value-at-risk during the accumulation phase," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 187-215, October.
    6. Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2009. "Reforming pensions: Principles, analytical errors and policy directions," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(2), pages 5-29, April.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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