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Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate

Author

Listed:
  • Arnulf Grübler

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Nebojsa Nakicenovic

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

We need to research all the potential outcomes, not try to guess which is likeliest to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnulf Grübler & Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 2001. "Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6842), pages 15-15, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:412:y:2001:i:6842:d:10.1038_35083752
    DOI: 10.1038/35083752
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nigel W. Arnell & Emma L. Tompkins & W. Neil Adger, 2005. "Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1419-1431, December.
    2. Olaleye, Olaitan & Baker, Erin, 2015. "Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 203-216.
    3. Céline Guivarch & Julie Rozenberg & Vanessa Schweizer, 2016. "The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database," Post-Print halshs-01292901, HAL.
    4. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    5. Robert Lempert, 2013. "Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 627-646, April.
    6. Iverson, Terrence, 2012. "Communicating Trade-offs amid Controversial Science: Decision Support for Climate Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 74-90.
    7. Minh Ha-Duong, 2012. "Review of risk and uncertainty concepts for climate change assessments including human dimensions," Working Papers halshs-00008089, HAL.
    8. Rob Swart & Lenny Bernstein & Minh Ha-Duong & Arthur Petersen, 2009. "Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 1-29, January.
    9. Donghoon Cha & Sangeun Lee & Heekyung Park, 2012. "Investigating the Vulnerability of Dry-Season Water Supplies to Climate Change: A Case Study of the Gwangdong Reservoir Drought Management System, Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4183-4201, November.
    10. Amro Nasr & Oskar Larsson Ivanov & Ivar Björnsson & Jonas Johansson & Dániel Honfi, 2021. "Towards a Conceptual Framework for Built Infrastructure Design in an Uncertain Climate: Challenges and Research Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    11. Minh Ha-Duong, 2006. "Scenarios, probability and possible futures," Post-Print halshs-00003925, HAL.
    12. Lohmann, Larry, 2009. "Toward a different debate in environmental accounting: The cases of carbon and cost-benefit," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 499-534, April.
    13. de Vries, Bert J.M. & Petersen, Arthur C., 2009. "Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1006-1019, February.
    14. Francisco Estrada & Carlos Gay & Cecilia Conde, 2012. "A methodology for the risk assessment of climate variability and change under uncertainty. A case study: coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 455-479, July.
    15. Richard Moss, 2011. "Reducing doubt about uncertainty: Guidance for IPCC’s third assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 641-658, October.
    16. Judith Curry, 2011. "Reasoning about climate uncertainty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 723-732, October.

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