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Investigating the Vulnerability of Dry-Season Water Supplies to Climate Change: A Case Study of the Gwangdong Reservoir Drought Management System, Korea

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  • Donghoon Cha
  • Sangeun Lee
  • Heekyung Park

Abstract

This study aims to improve the method to measure the vulnerability of water supply that arises mainly due to water scarcity in the dry season, and a situation that is expected to be exacerbated by climate change. The authors discuss the usefulness of the Gwangdong Reservoir Drought Management Model (GRDM2), which was developed in a previous study, and built on the basis of the adaptation mechanism, specifying the relationship between external disturbances (or future scenarios), system components pertaining to adaptation capacity, and vulnerability. The authors derive a total of 48 future scenarios, which consist of combinations of 6 future inflow scenarios and 8 future water requirement scenarios, of the Gwangdong reservoir drought management system. They then estimate the damage cost due to water scarcity in the dry season until the 2050s after feeding data in each scenario into GRDM2. The simulation reveals that extensive damage due to water scarcity may occur from the 2020s, and catastrophes, with damage four times greater than in the 2009 water scarcity accident, may occur in the 2050s. Assembling those results together, the authors conclude that GRDM2 is useful to measure the magnitude of climate change vulnerability, focusing on damage caused by water scarcity during the dry season. It is finally stated that to well prepare for climate change, engineers should investigate a suitable combination of available solutions, and at the same time perceive the threats that are attributed to high uncertainty. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Donghoon Cha & Sangeun Lee & Heekyung Park, 2012. "Investigating the Vulnerability of Dry-Season Water Supplies to Climate Change: A Case Study of the Gwangdong Reservoir Drought Management System, Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4183-4201, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:14:p:4183-4201
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0139-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Predrag Prodanovic & Slobodan Simonovic, 2010. "An Operational Model for Support of Integrated Watershed Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(6), pages 1161-1194, April.
    2. Arnulf Grübler & Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 2001. "Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 412(6842), pages 15-15, July.
    3. Mohamed Hamouda & Mohamed Nour El-Din & Fawzia Moursy, 2009. "Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in the Eastern Nile Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(13), pages 2697-2725, October.
    4. V. Krysanova & Z. Kundzewicz & I. Pińskwar & A. Habeck, 2006. "Regional Socio-economic and Environmental Changes and their Impacts on Water Resources on Example of Odra and Elbe Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(4), pages 607-641, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Capra & S. Consoli & B. Scicolone, 2013. "Long-Term Climatic Variability in Calabria and Effects on Drought and Agrometeorological Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 601-617, January.
    2. O. Haddad & M. Jahandideh-Tehrani & M. Mariño, 2013. "Discussion of “Investigating the Vulnerability of dry-Season Water Supplies to Climate Change: A Case Study of the Gwangdong Reservoir Drought Management System, Korea” by Donghoon Cha; Sangeun Lee; a," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 1893-1896, May.

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