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Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes

Author

Listed:
  • Jarmo S. Kikstra

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Adriano Vinca

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    University of Victoria)

  • Francesco Lovat

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Benigna Boza-Kiss

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Central European University (CEU))

  • Bas Ruijven

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Charlie Wilson

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    University of East Anglia (UEA))

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Imperial College London
    Imperial College London)

  • Behnam Zakeri

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Aalborg University)

  • Oliver Fricko

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Graz University of Technology)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. How post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the effect of demand changes persisting. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 1–36 EJ yr−1 by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emission reductions of 14–45 GtCO2 by 2030. Uncertainty ranges depend on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with energy-efficient practices embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption and production reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5 °C-consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by US$1.8 trillion and softens the pressure to rapidly upscale renewable energy technologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarmo S. Kikstra & Adriano Vinca & Francesco Lovat & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Bas Ruijven & Charlie Wilson & Joeri Rogelj & Behnam Zakeri & Oliver Fricko & Keywan Riahi, 2021. "Climate mitigation scenarios with persistent COVID-19-related energy demand changes," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1114-1123, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:6:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1038_s41560-021-00904-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-021-00904-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Biying Yu & Zihao Zhao & Yi-Ming Wei & Lan-Cui Liu & Qingyu Zhao & Shuo Xu & Jia-Ning Kang & Hua Liao, 2023. "Approaching national climate targets in China considering the challenge of regional inequality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Martina Pilloni & József Kádár & Tareq Abu Hamed, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Energy Start-Up Companies: The Use of Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as a Lesson for Future Recovery," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-15, May.
    3. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Nikas, Alexandros & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan & Xexakis, Georgios & Forouli, Aikaterini & Mittal, Shivika & Gambhir, Ajay & Koutsellis, Themistoklis & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    4. Rockstuhl, Sebastian & Wenninger, Simon & Wiethe, Christian & Ahlrichs, Jakob, 2022. "The influence of risk perception on energy efficiency investments: Evidence from a German survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Cassetti, Gabriele & Boitier, Baptiste & Elia, Alessia & Le Mouël, Pierre & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Zagamé, Paul & Nikas, Alexandros & Koasidis, Konstantinos & Doukas, Haris & Chiodi, Alessandro, 2023. "The interplay among COVID-19 economic recovery, behavioural changes, and the European Green Deal: An energy-economic modelling perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    6. John Barrett & Steve Pye & Sam Betts-Davies & Oliver Broad & James Price & Nick Eyre & Jillian Anable & Christian Brand & George Bennett & Rachel Carr-Whitworth & Alice Garvey & Jannik Giesekam & Greg, 2022. "Energy demand reduction options for meeting national zero-emission targets in the United Kingdom," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 726-735, August.
    7. Urte Samukaite Bubniene & Sarunas Zukauskas & Vilma Ratautaite & Monika Vilkiene & Ieva Mockeviciene & Viktorija Liustrovaite & Maryia Drobysh & Aurimas Lisauskas & Simonas Ramanavicius & Arunas Raman, 2022. "Assessment of Cytochrome c and Chlorophyll a as Natural Redox Mediators for Enzymatic Biofuel Cells Powered by Glucose," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-15, September.
    8. Ekinci, Esra & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Kazancoglu, Yigit & Sarma, P.R.S. & Sezer, Muruvvet Deniz & Ozbiltekin-Pala, Melisa, 2022. "Resilience and complexity measurement for energy efficient global supply chains in disruptive events," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. Nogales, Ricardo & Alcaraz, Andrea & Lopez, David & Ravillard, Pauline & Ballón, Sergio & Carvalho Metanias Hallack, Michelle, 2023. "Economic Impacts of a Supporting Scheme on Domestic Energy Consumption in Bolivia: A Quasi-experimental Approach," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12877, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Behnam Zakeri & Katsia Paulavets & Leonardo Barreto-Gomez & Luis Gomez Echeverri & Shonali Pachauri & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Caroline Zimm & Joeri Rogelj & Felix Creutzig & Diana Ürge-Vorsatz & David G. , 2022. "Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-23, August.
    11. Panagiotis Fragkos, 2022. "Decarbonizing the International Shipping and Aviation Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-25, December.
    12. Andreas Andreou & Panagiotis Fragkos & Theofano Fotiou & Faidra Filippidou, 2022. "Assessing Lifestyle Transformations and Their Systemic Effects in Energy-System and Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Current Methods and Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-24, July.

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