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Serendipity and strategy in rapid innovation

Author

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  • T. M. A. Fink

    (London Institute for Mathematical Sciences
    Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • M. Reeves

    (BCG Henderson Institute)

  • R. Palma

    (BCG Henderson Institute)

  • R. S. Farr

    (London Institute for Mathematical Sciences)

Abstract

Innovation is to organizations what evolution is to organisms: it is how organizations adapt to environmental change and improve. Yet despite advances in our understanding of evolution, what drives innovation remains elusive. On the one hand, organizations invest heavily in systematic strategies to accelerate innovation. On the other, historical analysis and individual experience suggest that serendipity plays a significant role. To unify these perspectives, we analysed the mathematics of innovation as a search for designs across a universe of component building blocks. We tested our insights using data from language, gastronomy and technology. By measuring the number of makeable designs as we acquire components, we observed that the relative usefulness of different components can cross over time. When these crossovers are unanticipated, they appear to be the result of serendipity. But when we can predict crossovers in advance, they offer opportunities to strategically increase the growth of the product space.

Suggested Citation

  • T. M. A. Fink & M. Reeves & R. Palma & R. S. Farr, 2017. "Serendipity and strategy in rapid innovation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-02042-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02042-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Schetter & Dario Diodato & Eric Protzer & Frank Neffke & Ricardo Hausmann, 2024. "From Products to Capabilities: Constructing a Genotypic Product Space," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2419, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jun 2024.
    2. Wareham, Jonathan & Pujol Priego, Laia & Romasanta, Angelo Kenneth & Mathiassen, Thomas Wareham & Nordberg, Markus & Tello, Pablo Garcia, 2022. "Systematizing serendipity for big science infrastructures: The ATTRACT project," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Alje van Dam & Koen Frenken, 2019. "Variety, Complexity and Economic Development," Papers 1903.07997, arXiv.org.
    4. Alje van Dam & Koen Frenken, 2020. "Vertical vs. Horizontal Policy in a Capabilities Model of Economic Development," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2037, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2020.
    5. Mewes, Lars & Broekel, Tom, 2022. "Technological complexity and economic growth of regions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    6. Lebdioui, Amir, 2022. "Nature-inspired innovation policy: Biomimicry as a pathway to leverage biodiversity for economic development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Koen Frenken & Frank Neffke & Alje van Dam, 2023. "Capabilities, institutions and regional economic development: a proposed synthesis," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(3), pages 405-416.
    8. Ivan Savin, 2021. "On optimal regimes of knowledge exchange: a model of recombinant growth and firm networks," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(3), pages 497-527, July.
    9. Dam, Alje van & Frenken, Koen, 2022. "Variety, complexity and economic development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    10. Pyung Nahm & Raviv Murciano-Goroff & Michael Park & Russell J. Funk, 2023. "Serendipity in Science," Papers 2308.07519, arXiv.org.
    11. Stephanie Cheng & Pengkai Lin & Yinliang Tan & Yuchen Zhang, 2023. "“High” innovators? Marijuana legalization and regional innovation," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(3), pages 685-703, March.
    12. Shafique, Muhammad & Hagedoorn, John, 2022. "Look at U: Technological scope of the acquirer, technological complementarity with the target, and post-acquisition R&D output," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. James, Steffan & Liu, Zheng & Stephens, Victoria & White, Gareth R.T., 2022. "Innovation in crisis: The role of ‘exaptive relations’ for medical device development in response to COVID-19," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    14. Thomas Fink & Pankaj Ghemawat & Martin Reeves, 2017. "Searching for Great Strategies," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(4), pages 272-281, December.

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